The rise and fall of AAP. An open letter to Mr. Arvind Kejriwal

Pratim Ranjan Bose

Dear Mr. Arvind Kejriwal

How is life at Tihar? I am sure, the sweltering heat and the whine of mosquitoes don’t make it apleasurable experience.

Source: Facebook

But, that is nothing new for you. You have spent nights under the open sky while agitating on the streets of Delhi for greater part of the last year.

Your anti-corruption movement rocked the nation. We also welcomed your decision to attack the issue head on by joining politics.

That you struck the right cord is evident in the emphatic support your Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) received from a wide cross section of the society, in the Assembly election in Delhi, in December 2013.

Though the mandate was fractured, you played the cards well by accepting the challenge to form a minority government in the national capital.

AAP has not merely caught the fancy of the post-ideological generation in India. But, you rekindled hope of atransparent government in many, across the world 

We didn't expect you to talk about ideologies - borrowed or home-grown. There are many already in fray to pursue those lines. And, we, the children of an open economy – who have more faith on GDP than isms, caste or religion - are sick of them.

We wanted relief from the existing course of politics that thrives on “black money” and “cut money” on the garb of all those tall talks. We are not insensitive to the poor. But, we are sure that those who thrive on the politics of disruption are of no good.

In you, we saw the promise of a new wave in politics – a social democratic force you may say, that will make anti-graft movement into a political reality.

But you belied our hope.

Hope belied

Looking back you got more support that any newborn party could expect. Live aside commoners, your movement got crucial support from two most important sections of the society: Media and industry.

Source: Facebook

In a welcome change from the past, we saw celebrity industrialists and managers openly voicing their opinion against corruption.

Some like Captain Gopinath of Air Deccan fame or the former Infosys board member V Balakrishnan joined AAP. Many others like Deepak Parekh and Kiran Mazumdar Shaw welcomed your anti-corruption movement.

Everyone knew that AAP is not a structured, cohesive, political entity – a quality much needed for the long life of a political force. Yet, everyone banked on you. They expected you to bring about broad spectrum changes in course of Indian politics.

Surviving on stunts

Sadly you failed them.

The runway success has gone to your head. And, instead of focussing on the painstaking job of building a party, brick by brick, you started aspiring for quick returns. You wanted to be a kingmaker in Indian coalition politics.

Your decline started on the day you, then Chief Minister of Delhi, took to the streets in support of your cabinet colleague Somnath Bharti whose abusive remarks and unsolicited actions on some African women shocked our sensibilities.

Source: Facebook

Your actions were improper and unbecoming of a Chief Minister to say the least. And, since then you went ontaking one wrong step after another. 

Instead of leaving your mark as an administrator, you had quit from the position of Chief Minister of Delhi in a jiffy . Clearly it was done to gain sympathy of voters in the just concluded Generation Election. If that was not enough, you shifted from your anti-corruption plank and practically towed the line of Socialists and Leftists in countering Narendra Modi’s BJP.

You, a kindergarten student in politics, thought it is cakewalk to take on the seasoned players of the ability and stature of Modi. You invited him to fight from Varanasi. In the end, he defeated you by close to 400,000 votes.

You were still lucky to have cornered 200,000 odd votes in your favour. But the situation of most of your party nominees (excepting in Delhi and Punjab) is even worse. Social activist Medha Patkar got merely 76,000 votes at Mumbai North East. Meera Sanyal who left a cushy job at Royal Bank of Scotland, got only 40,000 votes at Mumbai South where 10,000 people pressed the NOTA button.

Of the three Bangalore seats, V Balakrishnan got a maximum of approximately 40,000 votes! And, all those tall talks brought Kumar Vishwas merely 25,000 votes at Amethi.

You used the contributions from AAP sympathizers in contesting from 432 seats as against 340 odd of BJP. In the end you wasted ` 1 crore through forfeiture of deposits in 414 seats ! Excepting four seats in Punjab, you are a big failure in this year’s General Election. And, that too after receiving unprecedented media support.

Source: Facebook

Clearly, if elections could be won by stupid stunts, you should have been India’s Prime Minister for next 50 years.

In fact, looking back, one may wonder whether you and your senior colleagues like Bharti or Prashan Bhushan wanted to survive by creating controversy. Perhaps that was your ploy to attract media attention. You were converting the precious news space for publicity of AAP.

Aam Aadmi or ‘Mango people’

It was a smart ploy. But just as all good things must come to an end, you are now paying the price of your misdeeds. The anti-corruption hero has now become the comic relief of the nation. And, in merely a span of four months AAP is relegated to the party of ‘Mango people', as Robert Vadra once described it.

Mr. Kejriwal somewhere in the course of the journey for last three months, you and some of your famed colleagues pressed the self-destruction button. AAP is now on its way to extinction. Some shreds of it might remain, in some part of the country, but only as splinter groups.

Your days of fame are over. But, the worst part is, you have killed the common man’s (Aam Aadmi) movement that we all wanted to flourish. No one will take such movements seriously in the years to come.

And, we would welcome you perish in some jail for that heinous crime – murder of a dream!

Verdict2014: The Election that rewrote India’s political narratives.

Pratim Ranjan Bose

Having occupied the hot seat for 10 years, Manmohan Singh left the Prime Minister’s Office with a heavy heart. His party is faced with its worst ever defeat in the history of the democracy.

Emphatic win

With 44 MPs, the Indian National Congress ended up a distant second to BJP’s 282 in a Lok Sabha of 543. It was wiped out from nearly half a dozen major states. Over all Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is reduced to less than one-fourth of its size in the previous Lok Sabha.

BJP has enough numbers to form the government on its own - an exception in Indian politics since economic liberalisation.

	2009	2014
BJP	116	282
Congress	206	44

Coupled with its allies, it is now an undisputable power in Indian politics. More than numbers; the party is successful in making its presence felt across the length and breadth of the country.

New wave in Indian politics

The massive anti-Indira Gandhi wave, spearheaded by Jaiprakash Narain’s makeshift Janata Party  in 1977; the surge of Hindu nationalism on the back of BJP’s L K Advani led Ram Janambhoomi movement – nothing can match the achievements of Narendra Modi’s call for able government and a better government.

As Pratap Bhanu Mehta of Centre for Policy Research puts it, 2014 General election had “overthrown” all the accepted narratives of Indian politics.

Time to introspect. Source: my.fakingnews.firstpost.com 

Modi has changed the idom of Indian politics by breaching many caste and religion-based vote banks that were hitherto inaccessible to either BJP or Congress.

The damage to the identity politics can be understood from a single factor. From 21 seats in 2004, Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party is reduced to ‘zero’. Its control over the Dalit votes in the cow-belt is down by one-third.

Same is the fate of Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) or Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal in Bihar or Mulayam Singh’s Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh. All of them were thriving on Muslim votes and caste-based politics.

Preliminary analysis of the results in Uttar Pradesh, Assam and Goa; reveals Modi has not merely breached their fiefdom of low-caste Hindu votes; but also got a fair share of votes from Muslim and other religious minorities. 

And that puts at rest, at least at this juncture, the traditional narratives describing BJP as a party of Brahminical ideologues or Modi as an untouchable to Muslims or the dream of a prosperous India doesn’t sell to India’s rural majority.

India has got its first Prime Minister who hails from “other backward class” (OBC) who opposes ‘liberal’ claims (Interview to Times Now) that religious minorities have first right on the national resources. Because he says it is poor - cutting across religious or caste identity - should enjoy that right.

Whether he will be able to bring such words into practice, is to be seen. But, Narendra Damodardas Modi promises Achhe din aane wale hai (good days are round the corner).

And, the young and aspiring India surely believed in him.

Congress missed the signal

In retrospect, India had given the signal by bringing in Manmohan Singh’s UPA government for the second term, with a higher seat share, in 2009. The mandate was for a strong growth oriented government, at the Centre.

Source: theweek.com

But the UPA took it as a license to rob the country or, to continue with their misdeeds in the first term.

Right from Commonwealth Games to the high profile telecom sector or the humble coal and power – unprecedented corruption distorted the economics of every industrial sector.

The government first denied any wrong doing and then, thanks to a vigilant Supreme Court, was forced to take corrective measures.

And throughout this period Singh maintained a silence. He did not have much choice either. Because, some of the biggest scams (as in captive coal block allocation) in the history of India, took place right under his nose.

Singh’s personal integrity is beyond doubt. But, his government had set a new record of corruption as was chronicled by The Economist.

“The business interests of the present cabinet—if you believe the rumours—include a real-estate empire in Singaporeand an insider-trading ring run by a minister’s son,” The Economist wrote in March this year.

But that’s not all, in an effort to remain in power; the Manmohan Singh government took a series of decisions that had seriously dented the democratic fabric of the country.

The rate at which the government issued ordinances (including some during poll season) to bypass Parliament was alarming, to say the least. It was also shocking that a major state (Andhra Pradesh) was divided without allowing members to cast their ballot in the Lok Sabha!

The aim was to create a vote bank. The end result is Congress is wiped out of the region.

A takeaway for Modi

Singh will not find many shoulders to cry on. But, the rout of Congress leaves a strong message for the incumbent as well as every political party.

Source; sodahead.com

No one expects Narendra Modi to present India with a corruption free government. But, his voters surely expect an efficient government that will be relatively clean.

Some corporates will surely continue dictating terms on public policies. The number of billionaires may also rise in the years to come. But, Modi must ensure that the 1.2 billion people get a fair share of the cake.  

India is getting younger. And, this post-ideological generation, that doesn’t care much about the Right or Left, is restless. If Modi fails them, who knows BJP may end up in the same place where Congress many others are now rotting.

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The art and crafts of Narendra Modi’s campaigning

Pratim Ranjan Bose

Love him or hate him, Narendra Damodardas Modi surely made the ensuring Lok Sabha elections in India, money’s worth.

With another week to go before the one and a half month long election season comes to an end; there is no point in hazarding a guess on the poll prospect of Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP).

Source www.toonpool.com 

But, the party’s decision to project Modi as its prime ministerial nominee surely served a purpose to Indian democracy, by forcing the electorate to take a stand rather than play the role of a passive observer and, blame the political administration for failing the nation.

Single minded focus on Modi

The ball was set rolling by Modi’s critics. Instead of coming out with a credible plan to address the public grievance against unprecedented corruption during the Congress-Led UPA (United Progressive Alliance) rule and ensure growth; they focussed energy on Modi bashing.

“It will be disastrous for the country to have Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister,” said India’s economist Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh - who is often accused of maintaining silence on the mounting allegations against his government – in January.

And, since then the General Election of 2014, became Modi-fied. Socialists, Leftists and even some rank opportunists (who are known for switching allegiance between a Congress-led UPA and BJP-led National Democratic Alliance depending on immediate political needs) - took anti-Modi stance.

Source: Theglobalpundit.blogspot.com

Tons of newsprint was spent in either disproving a ‘Gujarat model of growth’ or or painting a demonic picture of a reasonably popular politician, who has own successive elections in his home State and is idolised by industry for delivering able governance.

The trap of negative politics

It was negative politics and was done in complete oblivion to the fact that the Indian electorate is mature enough to understand that Gujarat is not India. Also, whosoever comes to power in Delhi; has to speak in the language of 1.2 billion that includes the world’s second largest Muslim population among other things.

Even the start-up, Aam Aadmi Party that caught the fancy of the nation’s youth by declaring a war against a corruption, fell into this trap.

Source: rulzwithatul.blogspot.com

The nation perhaps lost an opportunity to witness the much needed rise of a social democratic force – that would pay attention on ensuring a more equitable growth in capitalist regime, rather than referring to political ideologies that has little relevance to an upwardly mobile electorate.

BJP escaped criticism

Looking back, BJP gained profusely by this opposition led “Modi-Wave”

As the debate circled around the Chief Minister of Gujarat; his party escaped the public glare on its patchy record in governance in states like Karnataka and Rajasthan.

The billion dollar iron ore mining scam of a former Yeddyurappa government in Karnataka; the alleged corruption in privatisation of State-owned companies by Atal Bihari Vajpayee government during the NDA rule in the Centre (1998-2004) – everything fell by the wayside. Discussions hovered around the perceived, yet unsubstantiated, role of Gujarat government during the post-Godhra riot in Ahmedabad in 2002.

Source: India Today

The opportunity was seized by Modi. He enjoyed every bit of the personal attack and responded to it blow by blow, perhaps a little more than that. As the poll season progressed, his speeches and the style of campaigning went on improving.

Modi magic

What was initially an attack on the Nikamma Sarkar (useless government) in Delhi; changed in both colour and context. Modi became more lethal; taking on the “ma-bete ki sarkar (Sonia and Rahul Gandhi)” in Delhi or a “changed Didi (Mamata Banerjee)” in Kolkata, at equal ease.

And, in a significant difference to his opponents, his attacks were more political than personal.

Armed with fine oratory skill and an ice-cool head, Modi simply tore apart his opposition by setting the course of the debate. Every shot that was fired at him, boomeranged.  The more his opponents lost their temper, the more he appeared invincible.

If Priyanka Gandhi accused him of pursuing “neech rajniti” (low-level of politics), Modi used it as an opportunity to point out that taking kickbacks on toilet papers procured for athletes during the 2010 Commonwealth Games; were indeed not the best examples of Indian politics.

The damage was not restricted to Congress. Modi used the opportunity to crack the codes of Dalit (formerly untouchables in Hindu religion) vote bank - jealously guarded by Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party - by flashing his neech (low) caste identity.

Surely his opponents haven’t done enough homework on Modi. But Modi did study his opposition. And, it was apparent time and again throughout this campaign phase.

Treading into new frontiers

A case in point is West Bengal, where the party got a mere 3.5 per cent vote in 2009 (excepting Darjeeling that it won at the support of GJM). No top-order BJP leader had ever wasted much time on this state. But, Modi made a difference.  

He not merely addressed a record seven meetings here, in last one month but, put the ruling Trinamool Congress on the back foot; by raising the sensitive issues of Ponzi scam and potential political cover granted to illegal immigrants from Bangladesh.

And, when the West Bengal Chief Minister, Mamata Banerjee angrily responded to his criticism; Modi mocked at her and advised medical attention.

Source: dnasyndication.com 

“Didi is getting a bit too angry. Doctors must take care so that she does not fall ill,” he advised, before signing off his poll campaign in the State.

It is now to be seen how the voters respond to this debate.

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Politics of poverty or poverty of politics?

 Pratim Ranjan Bose

Poor everyone ?  Majidih

India is poor. But is it as poor as we often perceive?

The question crossed my mind during a cursory visit to a tribal village in the hilly forested regions of North Tripura, last year.
The statistics available with the district authorities suggest, majority of 2300 people in Noagang are living below poverty line. The ratio is nearly double the State average of 40 per cent.

But, take a sneak peek into the Mizo village, and you will spot dish antennas in abundance. Many own two-wheelers and, some have cars. Mobile phones are a common occurrence. Large number of village boys are studying or working across the country.

And, many work abroad, mostly in West Asia. Their family members throng the Panchyat office, every Saturday, to avail the video-conferencing facility – that was commissioned under a centrally sponsored rural connectivity project – to keep in touch with the near and dear ones, ‘free-of-cost’.

Politics of poverty

Surely, Noagang is not as poor, as is told. And, it may not be an isolated case.

Murguma Dam 

With increasing spend on rural poor (close to one-tenth of India’s $ 2 trillion economy); Poverty may have become a far more popular instrument for many, to extract extra benefits from the State.

And, that’s an open secrete in rural India, where Panchyat’s are now brimming with activity to cater the increasing demand for income certificates, BPL card and the schemes aimed at 270 million people, reportedly reeling under abject poverty.

I had an opportunity to revisit the issue, a couple of weeks ago, while attending public hearings conducted by Welthungerhilfe (WHH) of Germany at Jhalda-II block of Purulia, in West Bengal, to check the status of Public Distribution System (PDS) aimed at the poor.

Rural Purulia records higher level of poverty (44 per cent) than Tripura. And, the hilly and forested regions of Jhalda are considered one of the poorest.

But, if your eyes don’t betray you, Murguma in Begunkodor Panchyat doesn’t fit into this category.

Long way to go. Majidih.

It should not to be poor either. Located next to a massive reservoir, it is a cluster of Mahato community - the single largest constituent of landed middle and upper middle-class group, wielding substantial political influence, in Purulia.

Definitely, there are poors in Murguma. But, they should be a minority. The neatly lined up houses,
with motor-cycles and television antennas showing up here and there, tells the story of relative affluence.

Inflated BPL list

Yet, all but one in a group of approximately 20 - that gathered to share their experience on the PDS or Ration­ (as is referred locally) - were enjoying weekly supply of hugely subsidised provisions, meant for the poorest.

On offer are rice at `2 a kg, flour or Atta at ` 6.66 a kg and, kerosene at ` 16.10 a litre – approximately 70-90 per cent discount to their respective market price.

And, among this surprisingly overwhelming majority of BPL population, only one family of Fulmani Mahato was landless!  ‘Poverty’ plays an equaliser here.

Difference in scale notwithstanding, the distortion of fact is visible in almost every village. Majidih is evidently poorer than Murguma. But, that does not justify inclusion of almost everyone in the BPL category.

Murguma

On the flipside, such generous issue of BPL cards have added pressure on the State’s ability to serve the poorest, as all the villages report inadequate supply of either fuel or food grains through PDS.

The ration shop at Majidih, for example, gets mere 70 per cent of the scheduled requirement of 60 quintal of rice and 22 quintal Atta. The availability of Kerosene is even less.

The poor suffers

The advantage goes to Rabindar Besra, who has a job as well as landed property to support the family but enjoys the same amount of benefits as Bikna Munda or Parul Majhi, who has neither.

Simply put, pruning the BPL list may help the government in reaching more benefits to the needy.  But, that needs the politics to shift gear from its current practices.

And, till that happens one may draw some inspiration from Hensla - a cluster of 100 odd households of Kuiry community – under Usti Panchyat in Jhalda-I block.

The village has recorded impressive increase in farm productivity in the last decade, by adopting intensive cropping techniques and a shoft in cropping pattern under the guidance of a non-profit organisation, PRADAN.

Hensla

Today, the population of its healthy livestock, irrigated farmlands, neatly lined up residential quarters complete with a tube-well – everything reflects the Hensla’s improving financial health.

Some solace

Yet, last year nearly 90 families here installed sanitary toilets at government support that is meant for the poorest. The only solace is: they have given up their distasteful habit of open defecation.

Surely, even miss-directed policies may end up in achieving larger goals.

***

(Pix by author)