Friday 27 February 2015

Hey Prabhu! Save Indian Railways, save the nation.

Pratim Ranjan Bose

In Hindi ‘Prabhu’ means almighty. But, as the India’s new railway minister Suresh Prabhu finds it, even the all-powerful cannot set things right in Indian Railways which has been left bloodless due to decades of abuse in the hands of shortsighted politicians.
“I thought, hey Prabhu how will it happen? Prabhu didn’t answer. So this Prabhu thought why we do something?” the railway minister said in his maiden budget speech on February 27.
I knew Suresh Prabhu, during his days as the power minister in the Atal Bihari Vajpayee cabinet (1998-2004). I was not alone. Probably all the newspaper reporters, covering developments in the power sector across the country, knew him equally well. To his credit, Prabhu could recognize each one of us, if not by name, then surely by face.
As one of the veterans in the profession, I came across many high profile Central ministers who were cordial to the media. Murli Deora and Jairam Ramesh of the Congress possessed such qualities.
But, Prabhu was a little different. He had a vision to improve the fundamentals of the electricity sector and made sincere attempts to make it a reality. 
Those were the days when the power sector was suffering from the legacy of the control-economy era. And, Prabhu had the unenviable task of reforming it in the face of stiff opposition from the State governments.

A minister of high caliber

And, Prabhu did it in style, until Bal Thackeray, the Shiv Sena supremo and his the then political boss, removed him in 2002, for reasons that had nothing to do with his competence or the lack of it.
This is not to suggest that everything Prabhu did was a resounding success. In 2001, he introduced the debt-securitisation programme to clean the balance-sheet of State government-run utilities. He thought it would prevent politics from meddling with the viability of the electricity distribution trade.
He was wrong. Many States went on offering free lunches to electricity consumers (piling up nearly $ 33 billion sticky assets at commercial banks). Aam Admi (AAP) government’s recent announcements in Delhi proves yet again that populist politics cannot be done away with so soon. 
However, Prabhu made a mark in most of his initiatives which have changed the rules of the game of Indian power sector altother. He was the guiding force behind the Electricity Act, 2003 that open doors of the entire cross section of electricity business to competition under strict regulatory regime.
Naturally, when the Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered him (now a member of the ruling BJP) cabinet berth as the Rail Minister, three months ago, I was excited.

The big challenge

And, the Prime Minister had picked someone with proven abilities.
The job at hand to bring Indian Railways - the fulcrum of Indian economy - back on track is formidable though.
The Railways was perhaps the worst victim of coalition politics at the Centre between 1989 and 2014.
With 1.42 million employees, country-wide spread, and separate budget proposals – the Railways offers unmatched opportunities to politicians to run a fiefdom. And, the smaller yet critical regional allies were always quick to grab this opportunity. 
The result is an abject sacrifice of national interest. Instead of trying and offering last-mile connectivity to the mining sector; the Railways was interested in setting up production units in UP or Bihar! While power generation was suffering due to slow movement of coal; the Railway Board turned its focus on acquiring a loss-making media house in Bengal.
There are numerous such instances where narrow political agendas of regional satraps got the better of the growth aspiration of a country of 1.2 billion.

Time for change

Three months are not time enough to overhaul a system that was raped for decades. But, knowing Prabhu’s style he had done his homework.
On Thursday, he did not present a budget. He, in fact, put across some basic numbers, on earnings and expenditure, as is mandatory. Not more than that. Instead, he used the platform to introduce us, with the first draft of his plan to inject fresh blood into the system. (BUDGET HIGHLIGHTS)
He is looking forward to investing $140 billion (Rs 8,50,000) towards capacity building and modernisation. This is peanut when compared with China’s annual investment plans.
But, for a country that has long been pursing a need-based development model in infrastructure creation, here is a milestone policy shift towards creation of surplus capacities. If Prabhu succeeds, India will no more have to focus on keeping the factor cost of infrastructure creation low. Instead, it will offer consumers varied choices.
Indeed, choices do come at a higher face-value. But the improved efficiency in goods and passenger movement should put India firmly on a high growth path, as it was evident in China in the past couple of decades.
But can Prabhu guide us to this goal? It appears he will, for Modi lends the crucial political support that Narsimha Rao once extended to Manmohan Singh in ending the licence raj in 1991.



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Tuesday 24 February 2015

The Delhi election and the changes it demanded in Modi's style of functioning

Pratim Ranjan Bose 

‘All good things must come to an end’, they say. I realised this, when my mother left for the heavenly abode (that has been the reason for going on a hiatus from blog writing), earlier this month.
The Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi faced it on 10th of this month when Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Admi Party (AAP) grabbed 67 of 70 seats in Delhi Assembly election.
Modi had been on a winning streak for nearly eight months. During this period he steered the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to unparallel success in Assembly elections in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and the Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). It came to an end in Delhi, the city where the Prime Minister sits.
In a way, BJP hasn’t done badly. It retained its vote share. It failed to increase the same due to strategic blunder leading to infight. But, AAP did exceedingly well, (much better than anyone could imagine) at the cost of Congress and some marginal players like Bahujan Sama Pary (BSP).
Congress that had ruled Delhi for last 15 years witnessed a sharp drop in its vote share, so much so that it failed to open account. BSP that always enjoyed a steady support of Dalits, is nearly wiped out from Delhi. The polarisation saw BJP ending with merely three seats.  

AAP not yet a major force

AAP’s win has no direct impact on Modi’s reforms agenda.
Delhi being an Union Territory (as per Indian Constitution Union Territories enjoy limited freedom when compared to States), Kejriwal should rather be dependent on Modi for smooth running of the government.
At the most, the new Delhi Chief Minister may cause some irritation to the India government by going in for demonstrations at the drop of a hat (as has been Kejriwal’s practice in the past), in the capital city. Modi is surely capable enough to deal with that.
The Leftists and regional forces like Trinamool Congress in West Bengal or Nitish Kumar’s Rastriya Janata Dal in Bihar are trying to project AAP as the torchbearer of anti-BJP forces.
This is an opportunistic move. The mainstream Left politics, led by CPI (M) is facing an existential crisis without much hope of survival. They are trying to align with AAP to revive their own electoral fortune. Trinamool is facing a series of corruption charges in West Bengal and is losing on popularity, especially among urban youth.
Nitish Kumar paid the price of his misplaced ambition to become Prime Minister of India, in the last General Election. His RJD is likely to lose ground in Bihar in the next Assembly election scheduled end of this year.
None of these parties has anything in common with Aam Admi Party. They have never been a part of anti-corruption movement spearheaded by AAP, in the past. Kejriwal may believe in them but, at his own peril.
What is more important, Kejriwal now has a tough (read IMPOSSIBLE) job to deliver the impractical electoral promises. The party runs high on emotion but lacks organisational and administrative abilities. It means Kejriwal shouldn’t find much time to divert his attention from Delhi.
Moreover, I don’t think AAP’s politics will be popular in the rest of the country, excepting in Bangalore and pockets of North India where there are sizable migrant population. The party is unlikely to find much foothold in large states like Bihar, Assam, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Kerala that will go to polls between 2015 and 2016.

Wake-up call for Modi

Yet, indirectly, AAP’s victory should have an effect on Modi government.
First and foremost it should help Modi to take on the Hindutva hardliners in and around the Sangh Parivar.
They are a liability of Modi and BJP. They refuse to believe that majority of Hindus are averse to religious fanaticism. These elements already caused much trouble to government by virtue of their nuisance value and must not be tolerated any further.  
The Delhi election also offered an opportunity to BJP leadership to re-think its strategies and make maximum use of the unabated turmoil faced by Congress. The Nehru-Gandhi dynasty ruled Congress was routed in each and every election for last eight months.
But that’s not all. Modi government should also revisit its strategies in pushing reforms.

Revisit reform strategies

The biggest impact that the Delhi election had on Indian politics is rejuvenating the nerves of the opposition parties.
Over last eight months, Modi’s winning streak has sent them running for cover. And, Modi in his haste to push the reforms agenda overruled their presence by promulgating as many as six Ordinances.
An ordinance is a law that is enforced subject to be ratified by the Parliament at within a stipulated period. The practice is not recommended unless in urgency. The Modi government violated this golden principle. 
The government was correct in bringing an Ordinance to auction coal assets soon after the Supreme Court verdict in September 2014. But it was on the wrong foot to propose opening up of Indian coal sector to competition, bypassing Parliament. Worse, the ordinance was re-promulgated.
Similarly, the Land Acquisition Rehabilitation and Resettlement Act, 2013 was amended through ordinance to ensure easier availability of land to private sector. This was a grave mistake.
Land acquisition ceased to be a legal issue since the country-wide anti-land grab agitations between 2005 and 2008. It is now a socio-political issue. The previous UPA government merely accepted the truth by replacing the old colonial act in 2013.
True the new act was unduly rigid and may have required some modifications to usher in development. But, that called for a basic minimum opinion building. Modi didn’t follow the conciliatory process. His opponents are now unanimous to oppose it. And, since BJP does not have the requisite number in the upper house of the Parliament (Council of States), the move is facing an uncertain future.
Any extreme measure - like calling joint session of the Parliament - to win the number game in the Parliament, may be counter productive in the longer term; as it would bolster public opinion in favour of the anti-Modi, anti-reform forces.



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