Realising Narasimha Rao's dream: Why Modi’s Bangla visit is more important than it meets the eye

Pratim Ranjan Bose

A quarter of a century ago, there was a wise man - who brought India its economic freedom and insisted that India’s journey to become a global power must start from its own backyard.  “Look East”, he said, to be more prosperous and powerful.

On June 6, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be visiting Dhaka to announce the implementation of the Land Boundary Agreement (1974) and a wide array of cooperation initiatives, ensuring freer movement of goods and people between two nations (as well as Nepal and Bhutan); it will be a giant step in realising the former Prime Minister, P V Narasimha Rao’s dream of building a modern India with huge strategic and economic clout in the Eastern neighbourhood.

In 1992, Rao took the first step in honouring the border agreement between the two nations by opening Tin-Bigha Corridor. It is a pity that India took another 23 years to complete the task. Yet this Saturday will mark a new beginning in the history of the subcontinent that had rarely harnessed cooperative advantages for common economic gain. It will also be a landmark in the history of North East India, which paid a heavy price for its post-Partition geographic isolation, and is now set to enjoy freedom from captivity.

The way forward as shown by Rao, the future order of the post-ideological world that he predicted, now comes to a full circle.

Indian diplomats should now take a break from their obsessive, compulsive focus on Pakistan – a country that was perhaps born to disturb the subcontinent’s peace, harmony and, growth prospects, at its own peril. It is time India paid more attention to building a common economic space in the East, free from any ideological baggage.

The lost opportunity

And, that will be a paradigm shift from the past.

For majority of the 67 years since Independence, Indian foreign policy was run on lofty ideals, far removed from the ground realities. The policy has its roots to the complex (if not confusing) development paradigm that India followed after Independence. 

In 1947, when the world was divided into two camps: communist or capitalist – the USA or the USSR. We built our economy with a model which was somewhat close to USSR’s, but paired our socio-legal framework with the liberal Europe. It was indeed a distinct attempt. On the flipside, our economic strength was as vulnerable as the USSR (that splintered in 1989) and our diplomats looked to the West for moral strength to gain ground in the neighbourhood.

The futility of this policy, that was high on morality but low on tact, is best captured in former diplomat-turned-politician K Natwar Singh’s autobiography, Walking with Lions: Tales From A Diplomatic Past.

At the end of the epic 1957 speech by ‘celebrated’ Indian diplomat V K Krishna Menon, UN Security Council members were left wondering: if India’s case on Kashmir was so strong, then why it took eight hours to explain?

The first major break from this benign foreign policy was scripted by Indira Gandhi (who is often remembered as the only ‘man’ in her cabinet). She took the support of Soviet Russia, to ward off threats of America, in taking a decisive stand on East Pakistan; where Urdu-speaking West Pakistani army was engaged in one of the bloodiest ethnic cleansing pogrom in the history of the world, against Bengalis.

India supported Sheikh Mujibur Rahman-led liberation campaign of East Pakistanis and directly interfered in what Pakistan described as its home affairs. The war was ended in no time. And, in 1971 Bangladesh emerged as India’s immediate neighbour, a friendly one – sharing the longest, over 4000 km, land boundary– on the East.

Ideally 1971 should have marked the beginning of India’s “Look East” campaign. But it didn’t. The killing of Mujibur Rahman in 1975 saw Bangladesh slip into the hands of army dictators. India responded by dragging its feet in taking the dialogue forward. Worse, New Delhi tried to pull strings, helping pro-Pakistani (or anti-India forces) to gain ground in Dhaka.

“Many Indian diplomats like me who believed we did not show adequate consideration and flexibility in dealing with these two military rulers and that some of the allegations levelled against us of interference in Bangladesh's internal affairs were not without basis,” said G Parthasarathy, former Indian ambassador to Pakistan and Myanmar. 

Neglecting economic considerations

India failed to respond to the emerging opportunity on the East for many reasons. The prime of them was a gross disconnect between our foreign policy and economic aspirations, or the lack of it.

In British India, the resources rich North Eastern States were accessed through today’s Bangladesh (and partly through Myanmar that was separated in 1937). But the Partition in 1947 left the region orphaned. It remained attached to India by a narrow corridor, popularly described as 'chicken’s neck'.

“In 1947 North East had a higher per capital income than most of the rest of India. But it had languished since Independence because Partition had cut it off from the Indian heartland” writes Sashi Tharoor in Pax Indica. 

Only one example will be enough to explain this economic tragedy. For an energy-starved nation, Tripura,  has abundant natural gas. But the investors shun the region due to its geographical isolation.

The road freight take at least three days to cover 1500 km hilly terrains to reach Kolkata before it sets sail for bigger consumption centres in the country, another 2000 kms away. The story is similar for coal rich Assam or Meghalaya.

Economic cooperation between neighbours could change the rules of the game.

It takes a couple of hours to reach Agartala or Guwahati through the plains of Bangladesh. Add a customs union in the range of possibilities; and the investors have a wide choice of setting up industries on either side of the border.

Leave alone European Union; even Belarus and Kazakhstan joined hands with Russia in creating such a common economic space. It’s doable, provided New Delhi’s dealings with its neighbours are “driven by both self-interest and magnanimity” as Tharoor puts it.

Sadly, Indian strategists in the past lacked these qualities. They were happy to have contained Pakistan on the Western border, but neglected the aspirations of a relatively peaceful Bangladesh on the East. Worse, they undermined the aspirations of the entire North Eastern India, making it a breeding ground for extremists and, but blamed neighbours for insurgency in the region.

It was a policy of self-denial.

Bangladesh was no exception in India’s dealings with smaller neighbours. We were dogmatic with Myanmar, complacent with Nepal and, and messy with Sri Lanka. The only success story in this era was Bhutan, an abode of peace in the sea of unrest, as it were.  

Rao opened new possibilities

Rao had put this paradigm of morality upside down.

He signed a pact with the Begum Khaleda Zia-led Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) for opening Tin-Bigha Corridor in 1992. BNP is known for its anti-India rhetoric and is backed by the pro-Pakistan fundamentalist Jamaat-e-Islami.

It was a move which did not really sacrifice security concerns which always botched up cooperation initiatives in the region.

“The Narasimha Rao Government obtained the cooperation of Myanmar in dealing with the BNP Government's involvement with armed insurgents in our northeastern States like Manipur, Assam and Nagaland. Weapons for these insurgents were obtained by the ISI-Bangladesh combine clandestinely from Thailand and transported to Cox's Bazaar in Bangladesh,” writes Parthasarathy.

Rao was in power for four and a half years between 1991 and 1996. Reforming Indian economy dominated his time during this short period. His departure surely impacted the regional cooperation initiatives as evident in 23 years delay since 1992 in implementing the Land Boundary Agreement.

The ‘stop-and-go’ nature of India-Bangladesh relationship till the end of last decade, indicates our diplomats were unwilling to give up their habits of taking moral stand on neighbouring governments.

They were ready to work with the Seikh Hasina (Awami League) government, but got cold feet whenever her arch rival Khaleda Zia (BNP) or the military backed interim government was in power.

The fair weather diplomacy brought disrepute to both sides. New Delhi’s delay in honouring the 2011 promise for border agreement, or backtracking on Teesta water-sharing pact, caused major embarrassment to Hasina. Similarly, India’s blatant support to Hasina’s re-election in 2014 in total disregard to her plummeting popularity burnt a fresh hole in New Delhi’s image. Many in Dhaka saw it as Indian interference in Bangladesh's internal affairs.

This must change.

And, there is every indication that a fair amount of back channel diplomacy is on, to convert it into an all-weather relationship that suits Indian interests. Khaleda Zia was the first caller from Dhaka to greet Modi after he assumed office in May last year. Her BNP didn’t take resort to anti-India rhetoric in the past one year. And, after the LBA was cleared by Indian Parliament Zia didn’t waste time to send a congratulatory note to Delhi.

Should such gestures be a new-normal in Indo-Bangla relation?

A new trade block in the horizon?

The question is important in achieving India’s next goal: Building an economic powerhouse, with smaller neighbours on the East; that will be more thriving than SAARC, which is facing hurdles from within.   

The new arrangement should be built on strong fundamentals of ‘self interest’ of the partnering nations. And, India being asymmetrically large (a 298 pound Gorilla in the company of skinny 98 pounders – as Tharoor puts it) should be “magnanimous” enough to its smaller neighbours.

It must not seek a return for every dollar spent on imports from an industrially hamstrung Bangladesh, Nepal or Myanmar. It is beyond their capacity to do harm to Indian industry. But Indian industry should surely gain in the longer turn as these economies will be more intertwined with India.

India’s gains are higher on strategic front.

Improved stakes of neighbouring economies in Indian growth story will have a cooling effect on the Hate India campaign that earns the country major embarrassment in global arena. 

Second, it will fuel growth in North East India addressing core of the insurgency concerns. North East is already cooler than it was a decade ago. Further growth should reduce India’s huge expenditure in fighting terrorism in the region.

Moreover, military access to the region through Bangladesh or Myanmar will help India in strengthening its defence apparatus. Last but not the least, it will open land routes for India’s trade with the ASEAN.

Considering the size of its economy and location, Bangladesh is an important piece in this puzzle. It means India has to put high stakes on the table, so that whosoever comes in power in Dhaka sticks to the cooperative advantage.

Time in Modi’s favour

The road ahead is not easy. But the situation is in India’s favour.

Bangladesh has been growing at a reasonable 6-7 per cent for last one decade or more. The growth aspiration created a case for economic cooperation. This coupled with India’s drastic reduction in trade barriers in 2011, gave a fillip to bi-lateral trade that zoomed from $ 4 billion to $ 7 billion in last three years.

While the trade will remain in India’s favour for some time to come, due to the country’s massive infrastructure spend in Bangladesh; Dhaka’s exports to India is also creeping up, creating space for wider B2B initiatives. The experience of China and Taiwan indicates thriving business opportunity helps keep political adversaries at check.

During his one year stay in power Modi is evidently pushing the regional cooperation issues harder. That he chose, Bhutan for maiden foreign trip; had been to Nepal twice and, visited Myanmar with firm commitments in hand - is indicative of his government’s enterprise.

To add to the political stability of this initiative; Modi is making the Opposition-ruled border States like West Bengal, Assam, Tripura etc to be a party to this ‘Look East’ campaign. Chief Ministers of all three states will be accompanying the Prime Minister to Dhaka on June 6.

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