Pratim Ranjan Bose
The great Opposition appliance,
if it ever comes up will be a big flop provided Modi sticks to his principle of
presenting strong and clean governments – both at the Centre and the States -
which are not afraid to take decisions. More than the defeat, the Opposition
will simply run out of their logic and will look pitiable.
The opposition is losing ground
because they failed to change the narrative from appeasement, identity politics
and negative politics (levelling blind accusations at BJP or Hindutva or RSS).
They are paying the price of following the beaten track. And, BJP is winning
because they are setting the agenda. This is happening since 2014 general
election.
They should better
try to understand why Shia Muslims and Muslim women voted for BJP and, why
Opposition was defeated by miles in seats like Deoband in UP. And, this is not
the first time it happened. Bora Muslims in 
It would be worthwhile to go back
to the history of mass support to Ram Janbhoomi movement and the rise of BJP.
Do you remember, it happened in the immediate aftermath of Shah Banoo alimony
verdict and the naked debauchery of Congress in changing the act to keep the
Islamist stronghold on Muslims intact?
I was in high school then, and I
distinctly remember how this double standard left my communist parents fuming.
I don’t remember any popular movement launched by ruling CPM in West Bengal then. I don’t remember any party other than
BJP supporting the Muslim women’s cause openly even after the Court raising the
issue, time again in last few years.
Read the recent CPM statement on ‘Triple
Talaq’ and the double standard is evident. They support women’s cause. But they
didn’t support Modi government’s move to stop Triple Talaq because, they hold
Modi as communal. Is this any logic? No. That’s why Left was rewarded with 0.2
% votes in UP, as against 0.9% NOTA (‘None of the above’ is an option given to
electorate to express their lack of confidence on the candidates in fray in a
constituency) votes.
It is juvenile to assume votes
were divided in UP simply because Akhilesh Yadav (SP) and Mayawati (BSP) were
fighting separately against BJP. They were fighting separately because it was
proven that their loyal votes were never transferable.
Why do you think there were
always post-poll alliances in UP? (We all know what happened to a Congress-CPM
appliance in Bengal in 2016. Let there be a
TMC, Congress and Left alliance and, BJP will win by a record margin.) To add
to their woes, BJP ate into Opposition’s loyal vote bank. The most formidable
BSP vote-bank is dented since 2014.
Keep accusing BJP, they are into
much more smarter politics. Keep
painting Modi and Yogi Adityanath as demons and, they will win elections,
provided they ensure better governance.
During LBA (Land Boundary
Agreement) implementation in 2015, I travelled extensively in India and Bangladesh . Modi was a hero in
70-90% Muslim-dominated enclaves (then part of Bangladesh )
which are now part of India .
(I saw a poster on a Madrasa wall, in an enclave that is now part of Bangladesh ,
hailing Modi.)
However, in May 2016 Assembly
election, these former enclaves elected Trinamool. If you think, they were
ideologically drawn to Trinamool you are living in a fool’s paradise, as was amply
proved in Parliamentary by-election in Coochbehar November 2016. BJP led by
huge margins in many Muslim-dominated former enclaves. In the final tally,
Trinamool won the seat but BJP’s vote share increased to a record high. It was
all about leadership, dear Watson.
Similar trend was noticed in the
by-election for Haldia (West Bengal )
Parliamentary constituency. Check the results of Nandigram assembly segment
closely and you will see BJP led the race in this Muslim dominated areas.
Why spread lies about Muslims.
Bengali Muslims were never a vote bank till late 1980’s or early 1990’s, Left
tried creating one by encouraging wrong elements in the community. Remember it was
the same time when Madrasas started populating in Bengal .
Trinamool tried to fortify this vote-bank by taking all those Muslim religious
leaders by its side. You call it secular politics. I don’t.
I am not saying BJP is a
favourite to Muslims. No, they still aren’t. BJP is still either oblivious to
the potential or not confident to go whole hogged for it and is focussing on
accumulating Hindu votes first. It is to be seen how they shift gears in the
future. But, I wouldn’t be surprised if they are successful in attracting more
Muslim votes in the future. I travel intensely in this country. And, I find
less and less precedence of ideology among voters.
Yes, a section of hardline
Sunni Muslims will not vote for BJP in the foreseeable future. It might help
parties to emerge winners in some pockets. But, whosoever will try to bank on
these votes, will remain on a weak wicket. It will prove more
counter-productive in the days to come, considering the rise of IS etc.
Instead of looking at BJP’s rise
through the prism of fake ideologies, Opposition would do better to appreciate
people’s aspirations and, the mistakes of keeping them divided in the past to
create vote-banks. As I see it, the people of India are thousand times more
liberal and secular, than some “intellectuals” or facebook fighters.
Instead of underestimating voters
and the sanity of their aspirations, Opposition should come out with more
erective or better political alternatives than BJP. Take a lesson from the rise
of AAP and the eventual fall. Their rise indicated the great potential of
alternative politics. They are pushed over the edge because they shifted wrong
gears. No one is interested in another BJP or Congress. There is space for
fresh ideas.
BJP is not above criticism. But
what we are seeing now is a deluge of agenda-driven criticism. It is doing more
harm to the Opposition than good as it is eating into the much-required space
of precise, pointed, watertight criticism on policies and policy
implementation. If you start demonising demonetization from the word go, you deny
your chances of fair criticism because people hold you as ‘Halla-Brigade’.
Change your image, your strategy and you will get votes too.
Congress won in 2009 general
election despite rampant corruption (2G, Iron ore, and Commonwealth games were
all known by then) because instead of launching a sharp attack on the ruling
party; Advani’s BJP was spending more time in stalling the Parliamentary
proceedings.
It is time to do away with
negative politics. Like it or not it will not be as effective, as it used to be
in the past. Voters now want politics to pursue a very utilitarian,
growth-oriented path. The opposition is largely failing to fulfil that
aspiration that and is blaming BJP or Hindutva for their downfall. This will
not work.
Don’t think Modi is a fool. He
has built an image and is reaping the harvests. There is no logical reason why
he should try to be a Lal Krishna Advani or Uma Bharti. If he does, he will
only dig his own grave.
History says, the grand alliance
was successful only once in 1977, on the backdrop of Emergency and splintered
in no time. Indira Gandhi came back to power within three years.
If you think voters are fools and
they don’t know how these coalitions ran the country for last 25 years, then I
should question your mental sanity. Also, please remember even in 1977 general
election, Janata Party failed to make much dent in the South where Congress won
majority of seats. It indicates ganging up is no surety for success.
The opposition failed to take a
lesson from PV Narasimha Rao’s economic liberalisation that sowed seeds of
post-ideological politics. They had more faith on V P Singh’s Mandal Commission
that practically strengthened caste boundaries like never before and divided
the whole polity into numerous interest groups at the compromise of economic
growth and prosperity. They thought it would keep the safe from BJP forever.
Now when a Modi
changed the rules of the game again, they are busy in witch hunting.
***
