West Bengal may witness a re-run of 2009, in 2019 Lok Sabha election with Opposition voters taking united stand against Trinamool

Pratim Ranjan Bose

Lok Sabha Elections 2019, may probably have the most interesting outcome in West Bengal.

For a State which is known for giving too long a rope to the ruling party; 2019 should be different. And, that would be a major shocker not only for the ruling Trinamool but also for a large section of mainstream media, which kept a blind eye to the changing public mood.

To my understanding, the 2019 election may be a near re-run of the 2009 Lok Sabha Election, when the TMC-led Opposition got 26 seats compared to 15 of the ruling CPI(M)-led Left Front. Left got 35 seats in the previous (2004) election. Trinamool got 34 in 2014.

In 2009, Opposition parties entered seat-share arrangement to ensure a bipolar contest. In 2019, the parties are divided, but their supporters appear to be united against TMC and resorting to strategic voting. BJP is getting votes as a strategic alternative.

Add to this, the general consolidation of Hindu votes to BJP; definite preference of young voters to Modi over Mamata; split of 28 per cent Muslim votes (which Trinamool considered its preserve) to various stakeholders including BJP (particularly in Birbhum and Coochbehar) on local or national considerations and; stern management by the Election Commission – this election may throw many surprises.

As per my estimates, which is drawn on inputs received from multiple sources, including on-ground assessment; of the 18 seats polled till phase-IV (May 29); 8 to 11 seats might have gone to BJP. Congress may have bagged 3 to 4; and Trinamool Congress, which came to power in 2011, is having anything between 4 to 6.

Trinamool may have suffered a near wash-out in first three phases of polling when North Bengal went to polls and is making amends in South Bengal, where it surely has a stronger support base and better poll machinery.

As for methodology, I have been armed with constituency-wise pre-election and post-election analytics which takes care of the trends, momentum, last minute electoral engineering by parties and last but not the least the public mood, which I believe is getting stronger against Trinamool.

West Bengal has 42 seats. So, a lot of polling is yet to be held. Trinamool will do better in South Bengal. They may also emerge as the single largest party in terms of seat-share, in a four-corner poll. But, the trend is probably set.

If we remember the past trends, dramatic rise of the Opposition in Parliamentary election generally set the course for change in State government in the following Assembly election; and whosoever was out of power, rarely came back.

The only exception to this rule was in 1989 when Congress failed to farther the major lead it got in 1984. However, the 1984 election was an exception too. 

Meanwhile, for the first time, Chief Minister Mamata Bannerjee’s rallies are failing to attract too many people. On the contrary, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is proving a crowd-puller.

On April 29, Modi held two meetings in the same district. Each rally was attended by 1-1.5 lakh people. For many reasons than one, there was little prospect of mobilizing this large crowd from far away destinations.

The symptoms are clear: Trinamool Congress is facing an anti-incumbency wave and is losing its iron grip on voters. There were very few one-sided acts of violence by the ruling party in the last four phases of the poll. Each such action was retaliated by Opposition supporters with equal measure.

Party insiders admit this. After the fourth phase, a top poll-manager of Trinamool predicted, in close quarters, that BJP might get 15 seats. Till last week, he was not ready to give BJP more than 10 seats.

It is surprising how mainstream media missed this trend, while digital and social media is full of loud hints.

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