Pratim Ranjan Bose
Corona virus outbreak and the resulting lock down may have a telling
impact on labor-intensive tea plantation sector. They will miss first flush
(March) crop and the second flush (May) may be delayed.
Disruption in crop-cycle is a risky affair and may have wider
ramifications. However, COVID-19 proved beyond doubt that the world should be
ready for more such disruptions, unless it takes safeguards.
A septuagenarian tea planter from Tamil Nadu feels largescale use of artificial
Intelligence-led technology can insulate the industry from such shocks in the
future. The idea is to reduce dependence on labour. At stake is 11 lakh tea
plantation jobs and labour-cost arbitrage-oriented business model.
Ideas like this may get a tail-wind in the post-COVID world which would look
at ways to safeguard economic activities from human intervention and the risk
of infection.
Lock-down taught India that ensuring movement of cargo trains is not enough
to reach supplies to the user.
Rake loads of fertilizer remained stranded as the authorities either
suffered from labour shortage or were afraid to of community spread of
infection. It takes 500 labours to unload a rake. Such operations may
henceforth be mechanized to keep the nation going during crisis.
Sectoral interests will be overblown by larger national or international interests.
If the Indian planter is reluctant, his overseas buyers – consuming one-fifth
of the country’s tea production of over 1300 million kgs – may force it; the
way they imposed many food safety restrictions, in the past.
Nature to be priority
Leaving behind the immediate concerns of recession, economic packages,
moratorium on loan payment etc; COVID may have long term impact on life and
economy across the world and in India.
The repeated virus outbreaks like Ebola, SARS or COVID are not imported
from some other planet.
After the cold-war era, the world focused its attention in maximizing growth
opportunities created by China. The growth came at the cost of nature. Fast destruction
of natural habitats, where the viruses were safely coexisting with wildlife, triggered
the problem.
The post-COVID world may take a very hard look at its growth strategies. Environmental concerns should rise. That is good
news for renewable energy but; bad for mining, mineral and coal-based power sectors.
Ensuring public health will be a global priority to prevent any more
pandemics. But till such concerns are removed; service trade like travel and
tourism, hospitality, transport, aviation etc may face new hurdles, with added
cost and revenue implications.
Impact on service trade should also impact goods trade. For example, power
gears imported from China come with service obligations. In case of
restrictions on travel, demand for such equipment may suffer.
Population Control
The complications are significantly high in India where service trade
contributes nearly half of the GDP and, as in 2011, nearly 45 crore people
migrated within India for jobs. The
living and working condition of such labour will surely attract attention post-COVID.
Construction sector may face stringent restrictions.
The focus on public health and sanitation may increase the cost of labour
adding economic logic to automation. The video footage of humanoid robots
delivering medicines to patients at COVID-19 isolation ward in a
Tiruchirappalli hospital; may be a common feature in hospitals.
The debate over possible rise in unemployment and more pressure on
agriculture; may help the government to take up the taboo subject of population
control with right earnest. The disturbing images of migrant workers walking
down home, hundreds of kilometres away, may act as a wake-up call.
A private member bill in this regard is now pending in Rajya Sabha.
Boost to Digital India
Parallel to the prospect of job loss and economic turbulence; COVID-19
outbreak has also opened many new opportunities.
It was fascinating to watch that an apparently simple caller-tune
campaign can sensitize masses, so effectively, about the impending danger; and
send a country of 130 crore indoors, with minimal use of force.
What is more fascinating is, the lockdown failed to bring the country to
a complete halt. People conducted banking operations. Groceries reached home
(with some disruptions). Bar on physical movement didn’t bring business
operations to a halt; as people worked from home.
After a week of lock down many private schools resumed operations but on
e-mode. Teachers and students attending classes in full uniform. The
opportunity was created by digital technology.
A Kolkata-based enterprise which was in the business of taking out
professionals for overseas conferences; is now holding similar seminars on
digital platform. For now, it’s a survival strategy. But, who knows, that it wouldn’t
be the trend tomorrow?
COVID helped India explore the full benefits of ‘Digital India’ campaign
launched by the Prime Minister in 2015. There is high possibility that India
will gear up to make best use of the facilities in the days to come.
Corporates may consider allowing a section of employees to work from home,
so as to reduce both cost and social contact risks. Schools and colleges will
make greater use of e-learning platforms.
More people may prefer doorstep delivery of groceries and vegetables,
giving a boost to e-commerce.
A major behavioral change is underway and that will open new
opportunities.
Domestic manufacturing
Change will also rock the manufacturing sector.
Restrictions on trade were already rising. COVID might escalate it to the
level, where countries like India may willy-nilly go back to the earlier
formula of self-reliance, with some modifications.
In a notification, issued on March 17 – days before the lock down - the
Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), escalated the
local content requirement, on a range of electrical equipment used in
electricity distribution sector. The
targets are to be met in a phase-wise manner, over the next three years.
Anand Mahindra has rightly forecasted Corona virus as a “reset button”
for the world.
Tweet: @pratimbose
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