Tuesday 25 February 2014

Regulatory issues in Indonesia - a reason or an excuse to reopen 48,000 MW electricity deals?

Pratim Ranjan Bose

This is unprecedented.
Imagine you bid for a contract. Considering the risks attached, you have quoted a price of say ` 100. But, someone else, with higher risk appetite, grabs the contract by quoting a price of say `80.
A few years down the line the winner party complaints that he has taken too much of risks leading to huge losses. And to ensure his viability, the project authorities now agree to offer him a higher price of `100. You end up making a fool of yourself, amid complete mockery of tendering norms.
Image courtesy: www.urbansamurai.com


Almost the same thing happened with the recent order of Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) that granted higher electricity tariff (referred as compensatory tariff) to mega-sized generation facilities Tata Power and Adani Power both located at Mundra in Gujarat.

Mockery of tendering norms

Both of them, won contracts to supply electricity to a number of State distribution utilities promising cheap levelised (flat) tariff on long term basis, ranging up to 25-years.
Both proposed to source part of the coal requirement from their mines in Indonesia, to justify such cost-economics. And, both are in a problem due to change in pricing methodology for Indonesian coal.
It did not impact their earnings from mining operations in Indonesia. The foreign government ensured that coal must not be exported out of the country below global market price, so that Indonesia gets its due share of taxes and duties. Naturally, coal imported to India became costlier.
The problem is genuine.
But, Tata Power and Adani were responsible for inviting it. They took every risk of sourcing coal – so much so that they did not opt for a cost-plus tariff model also on offer - and promised to supply electricity at the cheapest rates, outbidding many others who were more cautious in approach.
A post facto change in tendering norm therefore goes against the sanctity of contracts and natural justice.
Source: citizensforethics.com

But CERC did exactly the opposite citing “commercial impossibility” of fulfilling the supply contracts in view of change in regulations in Indonesia.
A private dispute between commercial organisations on fulfillment of contract obligation was converted into a debate on the notional ability of private capital to produce “cheap” electricity and the priority before the nation in rescuing such utilities from going bankrupt.

Private or national cause?

The moral high ground, as set by the CERC, is not new.
In fact, the very policy of levelised tariff-based bidding was mooted way back in 2005 by the UPA government in Delhi, as a recipe to generate adequate cheap “electricity for all”.
Private capital, the then Union power secretary was often found telling, had enormous risk appetite and ability to supply power at the same rate for as many as 25 years. The State sector units, including India’s largest power producer NTPC, which stuck to the cost-plus tariff model were dubbed as “inefficient”.
Source: http://jenn44.files.wordpress.com

Today, the policy proved to be a perfect recipe for disaster.
A total of 48,000 mw worth generation capacities, which promised to sell electricity to various State distribution utilities (Discoms) across the country, turned unviable.
A total of 19 such power producers have already approached India’s apex regulator with a plea to reopen the contracts, they once grabbed quoting rock bottom prices. With Tata and Adani are now allowed to walk free from the contractual obligations; it is time for others to expect bail out packages.
And, that would surely put a question mark on the moral and ethical ground of the regulator in revisiting the business agreements.
Because, majority of the Indian producers may be more affected by general uncertainties - like a slide in value of Indian rupee against dollar that made imports costlier, the overall inflationary trend or lower than anticipated availability of domestic coal – which were overlooked during bidding.
In fact it is debatable if majority of the affected producers, now looking forward to reopening of contracts, have any mining operation in the archipelago.
Indonesia may be another excuse to win over an argument that stands on very low moral ground.

An act of deliberate omission?

Going by the chronology of events in the Indian energy space since 2005, one may wonder how the best brains in business, politics and administration could overlook gaping the holes in the tariff based bidding policy.
Source: www.uow.edu.au

None questioned how electricity could be supplied at as low a price as `2.35 a unit for the entire lifespan of a generation capacity? No one pointed out even an increase in price of domestic fuel can upset the viability of such generation plans.

The silence was eerie and raises concerns of a deliberate omission. 

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