Pratim Ranjan Bose
‘All good things must come to an end’,
they say. I realised this, when my mother left for the heavenly abode (that has
been the reason for going on a hiatus from blog writing), earlier this month.
The Indian Prime Minister
Narendra Modi faced it on 10th of this month when Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam
Admi Party (AAP) grabbed 67 of 70 seats in Delhi Assembly election.
Modi had been on a winning streak
for nearly eight months. During this period he steered the Bharatiya Janata
Party (BJP) to unparallel success in Assembly elections in Maharashtra,
Haryana, Jharkhand and the Jammu and
Kashmir (J&K). It came to an end in Delhi , the city where the
Prime Minister sits.
In a way, BJP hasn’t done badly. It
retained its vote share. It failed to increase the same due to strategic blunder
leading to infight. But, AAP did exceedingly well, (much better than anyone
could imagine) at the cost of Congress and some marginal players like
Bahujan Sama Pary (BSP).
Congress that had ruled Delhi for last 15 years witnessed
a sharp drop in its vote share, so much so that it failed to open account. BSP
that always enjoyed a steady support of Dalits, is nearly wiped out from
Delhi . The polarisation saw BJP ending with merely three seats.
AAP not yet a major force
AAP’s win has no direct impact on
Modi’s reforms agenda.
At the most, the new Delhi Chief
Minister may cause some irritation to the India government by going in for
demonstrations at the drop of a hat (as has been Kejriwal’s practice in the
past), in the capital city. Modi is surely capable enough to deal with that.
The Leftists and regional forces
like Trinamool Congress in West Bengal or Nitish Kumar’s Rastriya Janata Dal in
Bihar are trying to project AAP as the
torchbearer of anti-BJP forces.
This is an opportunistic move. The
mainstream Left politics, led by CPI (M) is facing an existential crisis
without much hope of survival. They are trying to align with AAP to revive
their own electoral fortune. Trinamool is facing a series of corruption charges
in West Bengal and is losing on popularity,
especially among urban youth.
Nitish Kumar paid the price of
his misplaced ambition to become Prime Minister of India, in the last General
Election. His RJD is likely to lose ground in Bihar
in the next Assembly election scheduled end of this year.
None of these parties has anything
in common with Aam Admi Party. They have never been a part of anti-corruption movement
spearheaded by AAP, in the past. Kejriwal may believe in them but, at his own
peril.
What is more important, Kejriwal now
has a tough (read IMPOSSIBLE) job to deliver the impractical electoral promises.
The party runs high on emotion but lacks organisational and administrative abilities.
It means Kejriwal shouldn’t find much time to divert his attention from Delhi .
Moreover, I don’t think AAP’s politics
will be popular in the rest of the country, excepting in Bangalore
and pockets of North India where there are
sizable migrant population. The party is unlikely to find much foothold in large states like Bihar ,
Assam , Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Kerala that will go to polls between 2015
and 2016.
Wake-up call for Modi
Yet, indirectly, AAP’s victory
should have an effect on Modi government.
First and foremost it should help
Modi to take on the Hindutva hardliners in and around the Sangh Parivar.
They are a liability of Modi and
BJP. They refuse to believe that majority of Hindus are averse to religious
fanaticism. These elements already caused much trouble to government by virtue
of their nuisance value and must not be tolerated any further.
The Delhi election also offered an opportunity to
BJP leadership to re-think its strategies and make maximum use of the unabated turmoil
faced by Congress. The Nehru-Gandhi dynasty ruled Congress was routed in each
and every election for last eight months.
But that’s not all. Modi
government should also revisit its strategies in pushing reforms.
Revisit reform strategies
The biggest impact that the Delhi election had on
Indian politics is rejuvenating the nerves of the opposition parties.
Over last eight months, Modi’s
winning streak has sent them running for cover. And, Modi in his haste to push
the reforms agenda overruled their presence by promulgating as many as six Ordinances.
An ordinance is a law that is
enforced subject to be ratified by the Parliament at within a stipulated
period. The practice is not recommended unless in urgency. The Modi government violated this golden principle.
The government was correct in
bringing an Ordinance to auction coal assets soon after the Supreme Court
verdict in September 2014. But it was on the wrong foot to propose opening up
of Indian coal sector to competition, bypassing Parliament. Worse, the
ordinance was re-promulgated.
Similarly, the Land Acquisition
Rehabilitation and Resettlement Act, 2013 was amended through ordinance to ensure
easier availability of land to private sector. This was a grave mistake.
Land acquisition ceased to be a
legal issue since the country-wide anti-land grab agitations between 2005 and
2008. It is now a socio-political issue. The previous UPA government merely
accepted the truth by replacing the old colonial act in 2013.
True the new act was unduly rigid
and may have required some modifications to usher in development. But, that
called for a basic minimum opinion building. Modi didn’t follow the conciliatory
process. His opponents are now unanimous to oppose it. And, since BJP does not
have the requisite number in the upper house of the Parliament (Council of
States), the move is facing an uncertain future.
Any extreme measure - like calling
joint session of the Parliament - to win the number game in the Parliament, may
be counter productive in the longer term; as it would bolster public opinion in
favour of the anti-Modi, anti-reform forces.
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