Pratim Ranjan Bose
In a rare show of political
consensus; the Constitution (119th Amendment) Bill on LBA, was cleared
unanimously in both the houses of Indian Parliament on May 6 and May 7. The
Bill will now be sent for formal assent of the President.
The consensus was necessary
because the Prime Minister’s Narendra Modi’s BJP that has a brute majority in
the lower house or Lok Sabha (Assembly of the People) is a minority in
the upper house or Rajya Sabha (Council of States).
Forty-one years since the LBA pact was inked in 1974 and, two and a half years after the former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh
(2004-2014) entered a pact to ratify the 1974 treaty; India and Bangladesh will bury border
disputes, a legacy of the hasty Partition in 1947.
A total of 162 enclaves - some small parcels of land,
far detached from the mainland and located inside the foreign territories - of
either country will be swapped bringing an end to the human tragedy. Over 51,000 people will be getting national identities.
There will be no “adversely
possessed land” (APL) – disputed land parcels on the international border held by
India and Bangladesh in
deviation from the Radcliffe line – in the books of either country. The 4000 km long border on the East of India, will henceforth be clearly
demarcated and fenced.
Teesta pact on course
It’s a momentous occasion in the
history of the subcontinent.
It will probably be even more
momentous if the Narendra Modi government finds a clue to solve the Teesta
water dispute, before his expected visit to Dhaka
in June – exactly a year after Modi’s foreign minister Sushma Swaraj called on
the Bangladeshi Prime Minister Seikh Hasina.
Banerjee who had been once been a
staunch opponent to Modi (so much so that she had avoided exchanging the due courtesies
after Modi became the Prime Minister) is now on sticky wicket - due to
corruption charges against her party MPs, MLAs and even ministers - and, is
evidently trying to bridge the gap.
Her Trinamool Congress has
offered key support to the Narendra Modi government in clearing major Bills (like
enhancing FDI cap in insurance, coal sector privatisation and so on) throughout
the ongoing Budget Session of the Parliament.
And, that’s not all. The two leaders
will spend a lot of time together when the Prime Minister will be visiting
Kolkata on May 9 and 10. I guess Teesta pact will feature in their menu.
Bailing Hasina government
out
Interestingly, some observers of
Hasina camp in Dhaka, having key knowledge of Teesta issues, feel the water
sharing pact may not bring any significant material gain to Bangladesh .
This is due to issues that are not in control of either government.
The fresh hydrological study
launched by Delhi
will ascertain this truth. And, any agreement to offer Dhaka a higher share of
water (from the available quantities) may not necessarily increase the actual
flow of water to Bangladesh .
Understandably this is also reason why Mamata Banerjee gave up her opposition
to the deal.
But, the deal will be a major
political clincher for Hasina, who had returned to power for second term in 2014 under controversial circumstances.
Her arch rival Khaleda Zia’s BNP boycotted the election in protest against the
ban imposed by Hasina government on BNP’s Islamic fundamentalist allies who had
been on rampage ever since the Hasina government went ahead with the long pending trial of the 1971 civil war criminals.
Hasina was surely right in her decision
to clampdown on Islamic hardliners who had long been working at the behest of
their Pakistani masters in pursuing a hate campaign against India and spoil
every move to improve bilateral ties.
But, there are wide spread
allegations against her party for involvement in corruption and nepotism. Also
the weak democratic institutional capabilities of the country came in the way
of holding the opposition-less election in a free and fair manner.
The most difficult part was the international
community led by the US took a middle path and were keen to force Hasina stop
the trial of 1971 criminals and, come to terms with Zia for what they refer as
a recipe of ‘peace and harmony in the subcontinent’. They were in the mood to
declare her re-election as illegal.
Hasina couldn't have survived
this pressure, unless India
stood by her. The Manmohan Singh government took a decisive stance in convincing
the US to not meddle with
the Bangladesh ’s
domestic politics.
Modi diplomacy wins
Having done so, India was morally bound to extend a political weapon
to Hasina government to soothe the anti-India nerves in Dhaka .
But, it had to be done with caution so that any future change in political
equation in Dhaka does not destabilise the
economic and political relations between the neighbours.
The Narendra Modi government accomplished
it in style.
It is told that the first calls
that Modi received from Bangladesh
after taking oath in May 2014, was from Khaleda Zia of BNP.
Many in Indian politics are of
the opinion that while building political consensus for LBA and Teesta water
sharing pact over the last one year; Modi government allowed the dust in Bangladesh ’s
domestic politics to settle down.
The challenge was to let the deal
be debated in Bangladesh
as well, so that anti-India forces do not find a conspiracy theory
behind and start raising fresh demands at opportune moments.
Modi lived up to the expectation.
***
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(Disclaimer: Graphics are collected from the web. Will be removed in case of any objection.)
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