Naga Accord, regional cooperation and the changing ground realities in India's North East

Pratim Ranjan Bose

India is changing and, the change may be most evident in the North Eastern States of the country, over the next decade.

I am not merely talking about the latest sensation in Indian politics – the draft peace accord reached between the Narendra Modi government in Delhi and the Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland Isak-Muivah group (NSCN-IM) at undisclosed terms. 

Naga accord

Largest among all insurgent groups, not merely in Nagaland but in the region, NSCN (IM) has come a long way from its original demand for Independent Nagaland comprising Naga inhabited areas in the neighbouring Indian States and Myanmar, and is now on a reinvention mode. 

The group patriarchs – the ailing 85-year old founder chairman Isak Chishi Swu and the 80-year old general secretary Thuingaleng Muivah – have been using Indian passports since 2011. It is difficult for Muivah to explain the shift; but it is widely anticipated that the proposed agreement merely underlines the scope restoring Naga rights, without disturbing the existing political map of North East.

The Nagaland Chief Minister T R Zeliang - who is currently sharing administrative control with NSCM-IM, in a peculiar social arrangement – underlines that the accord merely aims to grant “more autonomy” to ethnic Nagas in neighbouring Indian States of Assam, Arunachal and Manipur. 

Implementing the accord will not be free from problems.

The Myanmar-based breakaway group NSCN-Khaplang, that had launched a daring attack on the Indian army in June this year, is opposing the treaty. Khaplang, along with Swu and Muivah, were once a part of the Angami Zapu Phizo’s Naga National Council that entered peace accord (Shilling Accord) with Delhi in 1975.

That’s not all. Nagas are divided in at least 14 major ethnic sub-groups. There are also two more NSCN factions – NSCN (KK) and NSCN(R) – based out of Nagaland. So far, all of them were united, with areas for collecting (extortion) tax clearly demarcated, through the apex body of ‘Naga Hoho’. It is now to be seen, how they react to the deal.

 Last but not least, the entire North East polity is divided in numerous ethnic identities, often sharing an acrimonious past. It is therefore anticipated that the neighbouring States would grumble over granting autonomy to the Nagas as proposed in the draft agreement.

Changing ground realities

Yet, there is high possibility that this round of Naga accord will be a major boost to the peace initiative in the region, courtesy a vast change in ground realities since the Shillong Accord in 1975. 

The home ministry data on violence and terrorist activities in the region indicates that barring the recent ambush by NSCN-K and the poll time violence (mostly in Assam) in 2014; North East has been less volatile over the last decade.

The credit goes to a number of factors ranging from emergence of political solutions (as is most evident in Mizoram and Tripura); a definite move from Delhi in removing the remoteness of the region by investing in logistics; rising aspirations of the educated youth to claim a share of the Indian growth story than spending life of a guerrilla warrior in the jungles; and the emerging paradigm of regional cooperation.

In the first four decades of Independence; India treated North-East more as a strategic occupation without much economic significance. Insurgency issues were handled from the point of view of colonial rulers. And, the high ideals of the closed economy era came in the way of ensuring better ties with neighbours like Bangladesh and Myanmar – together sharing nearly 3500 km border with six out of seven States in the region - paving way for insurgent groups to operate from across the border.

The hide and seek game came under the scanner, once Delhi shifted gear to economic liberalisation, in 1991, with ‘Look-East’ as one of the identified planks to prosperity. The change was evident in the last decade, when Bangladesh emerged as India’s largest trading partner, replacing Sri Lanka, in the SAARC region. The deepening economic ties between the nations created a common ground for Bangladesh to flush out Indian insurgent outfits from its soil.

True, the insurgent groups are still operating from Myanmar, especially the disturbed Northern part of the country, bordering Manipur and Nagaland, where Naypyidaw has limited control. But the recent initiatives of the Narendra Modi government in scaling up economic engagements with neighbours on the East, hold promise for a much bigger change in the regional dynamics in the days ahead. 

The quick counter attack launched by the Indian Army at NSCN-K camps inside Myanmar (in retaliation to the June 5 ambush), may be a reminder to this emerging reality.

A regional initiative

What makes me most hopeful about the success of this emerging paradigm is; it is not an India centric story. An unprecedented regional cooperation initiative is unfolding in the region with India’s North East and Myanmar are at the centre stage. 

There is little doubt that India with its renewed thrust on ‘Look-East’ will be one of the prime movers of this initiative.A dramatic improvement over the last decade notwithstanding; India’s trade and investment in the neighbourhood are still ruling at sub-optimal levels.

According to Export Import Bank of India; in 2011-12, the country invested nearly $ 31 billion in FDIs across the world. Of the total, Bangladesh received $ 72 million (0.23 per cent) and Myanmar $ 10 million (0.03 per cent). The scene is no better on trade front. As against its $757 billion trade bill in 2014-15; India did $ 6.5 billion worth of business with Bangladesh and $ 2 with Myanmar.

An insignificant portion of this trade is routed through North East. Despite making huge investments in road infrastructure on either side of the border, India’s land trade with Myanmar is languishing at $ 50 million.

Delhi is now desperate to change the rules of the game. In the new scheme of things, Moreh has to emerge as a prominent trade point, as India is eyeing a stake on the mineral resources located in close proximity in Myanmar. Huge investments are underway in both India and Myanmar to open another land route through Zokhawthar in Mizoram.

The gains are not one sided. An account of thriving informal trade in the region shows Myanmar is dependent on Indian supply of medicines, fertiliser, cosmetics, high value consumables and many others. A disruption in trade during the recent floods in Manipur sent prices of essentials soaring in border districts of Myanmar.

But the Indian interests are just a part of the larget story. 

The Cambodia-Laos-Myanmar-Vietnam (CLMV) region is now a global investment hotspot. A multilateral initiative is underway to integrate the region with two large markets of India and China through road (and rail) network. It is therefore a win-win to all the players in the region to clamp down on insurgent based in either Sagaing division or Kachin State in Myanmar or Nagaland and Manipur in India.

The economic benefit of this cooperation initiative is so lucrative that even sworn enemies like a Bangladesh and Myanmar are now discussing trade issues. The negotiation is mediated by India.  Delhi has already entered a set of agreements to promote a new trade block comprising Bangladesh, Bhutan India and Nepal (BBIN). In the days to come Myanmar may join this group.

The moot point is, the region is now exploring a new development paradigm that is unlikely to leave much scope for terrorism and extortion tax. It may be about time before some eight terrorist outfits in Manipur and another four or five based out of Myanmar are wind up shop.

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(Disclaimer: Graphics are collected from the web. Will be removed in case of any objection.)