Pratim Ranjan Bose
(Reproducing my presentation during a panel discussion on "Unlocking BIMSTEC potential: Trade, investment and connectivity", at the World Trade Centre - Mumbai, on September 5.)
On August 31, national newspapers carried Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech at BIMSTEC summit in Kathmandu with prominence. The Hindu made it a page1 lead story. But top five English and Bengali newspapers in Kolkata ignored it.
What does this prove? First, India is a country with many countries within. Some of these countries – which include as strategic a State like West Bengal, without which BIMSTEC will be non-contiguous - are far detached from the national and international realities. Second, and this important, before BIMSTEC pitches for international recognition and visibility, it has to do a lot of legwork within.
With renewed thrust from the top leadership of member countries - especially from two largest economies of India and Thailand - and access to more resources, probably things will henceforth improve. BBIN, for example, has now found a place in media narrative in Bengal.
Many expect BIMSTEC to quickly emerge as a trade block. Will it? I am not clear. Trump and Brexit took the wind out of TTP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) and TTIP (Trans Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership). RCEP has hit tariff roadblock. In India, NITI Ayog pointed out “exports to FTA countries have not outperformed exports to the rest of the world.” Delhi is dilly-dallying comprehensive FTA with Thailand, the only BIMSTEC country that has a positive trade balance with India. The reasons are well known. Protectionism returned. The same bug is working against BIMSTEC FTA.
Having said so, the good news is Trade between BIMSTEC countries is rising. Over the last 4 years, India’s total exports declined by 3.5%. But exports to BIMSTEC countries increased by 29.5%. Trade with BIMSTEC grew by 26%. In FY18 India-Thailand trade grew by 26%, higher than the average 10% growth in India's total trade with the world.
Over and above trade interests, there are strategic-economic common grounds between these nations - particularly between India and Thailand - pertaining to China. India has woken up from decade-long hibernation and is investing heavily in connectivity to Thailand through Myanmar, as well as to Nepal and Bangladesh. Connectivity to and in North East India is also getting a multi-billion dollar boost. Though most projects are taken up bilaterally, they should enhance connectivity in BIMSTEC, opening new opportunities to landlocked North East Region of India, Nepal and Bhutan.
Improvement in road conditions and, the recent opening of VISA facility through India-Myanmar land border, opened an array of opportunities. An Imphal-based entrepreneur was quick to launch package tours to Mandalay. Another local business is planning to run charter air services to Mandalay. The gains are shared. Myanmar will get tourists and, the Imphal hospitals are getting medical tourists. India’s outbound tourists (5.4 million) are increasing by 25% a year but Myanmar is yet to get a share of it.
So where does BIMSTEC fit into the scheme of things? In many ways than one. That it's not merely a trade block, helps the purpose. The optimal utilisation of Trilateral Highway and the success of the Dawei deep-sea port in Myanmar, as a low-cost alternative, to reach Thailand and CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam) countries, avoiding the Strait of Malacca; depend on the seamless movement of vehicles. This is easier said than done. Thai truckers resisted such proposals in the past. And a similar agreement among BBIN nations couldn’t be implemented yet due to resistance from Bhutan on environmental grounds. Can BIMSTEC help end the deadlock?
Drug and arms smuggling, gold trafficking and huge informal trade are major stumbling blocks to optimise the scope of formal economic activities between BIMSTEC nations. Common anti-cold tablets are finding a way from India to Myanmar via informal route and, returning as methamphetamine or ‘meth’ for the further journey to Bangladesh. We need a mechanism to stop this.
Most or Many of the rivers coming down from Nepal and Bhutan are finally ending up in Bangladesh through India. There is no common mechanism for flood control, resource sharing and utilisation like water transport.
In the days of climate change and erratic rainfall, these rivers often cause heavy damage in lower riparian areas. Flash flood coming down from Meghalaya caused major loss of life and crop in Bangladesh in 2017. More investment in granular observatories in the snow catchment areas of Bhutan, Nepal and North East and quick flow of information can minimise damage. Third Pole reported how quick alert from China on an unprecedented rise in water flow in the Brahmaputra helped minimise the flood impact in Assam, this year.
BIMSTEC doesn’t have the magic wand to solve all problems. But it can surely sensitise issues. Here are some suggestions:
1) India is a vast country where States have a lot of constitutional authority. Involve key States like West Bengal, Bihar, UP and North Eastern States in BIMSTEC programmes.
Bodh Gaya attracts lakhs of tourists from Buddhist nations. Bihar Must be responsible for their safety security, food and hygiene.
West Bengal must not keep a blind eye to local hurdles to ensure smooth transit of cargo.
In North-East, culture and language change in every 20 km. And, policies often become prisoners of Naga-Kuki, Kuki-Meitei, Mizo-non-Mizo conflicts. We need more sensitisation.
2) We deserve more intense air connectivity. While major BIMSTEC cities are connected. There are serious deficiencies in non-major centres. Manipur and Mizoram are, for example, desperate for connectivity with Myanmar. Similar demand may arise from other member countries and destinations.
India government has plans for increasing air connectivity to the neighbourhood. But it is yet to take off. Mapping of traffic potential, infra gaps and devising a suitable framework may help attract private investments.
3) With reference to India, spread out BIMSTEC activities beyond Delhi and involve media and local chambers. Involvement of chambers brings media coverage. If BIMSTEC has funds, consider offering some media fellowships to create future equity.
(Reproducing my presentation during a panel discussion on "Unlocking BIMSTEC potential: Trade, investment and connectivity", at the World Trade Centre - Mumbai, on September 5.)
On August 31, national newspapers carried Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech at BIMSTEC summit in Kathmandu with prominence. The Hindu made it a page1 lead story. But top five English and Bengali newspapers in Kolkata ignored it.
What does this prove? First, India is a country with many countries within. Some of these countries – which include as strategic a State like West Bengal, without which BIMSTEC will be non-contiguous - are far detached from the national and international realities. Second, and this important, before BIMSTEC pitches for international recognition and visibility, it has to do a lot of legwork within.
With renewed thrust from the top leadership of member countries - especially from two largest economies of India and Thailand - and access to more resources, probably things will henceforth improve. BBIN, for example, has now found a place in media narrative in Bengal.
 |
| WTC - Mumbai |
Having said so, the good news is Trade between BIMSTEC countries is rising. Over the last 4 years, India’s total exports declined by 3.5%. But exports to BIMSTEC countries increased by 29.5%. Trade with BIMSTEC grew by 26%. In FY18 India-Thailand trade grew by 26%, higher than the average 10% growth in India's total trade with the world.
Over and above trade interests, there are strategic-economic common grounds between these nations - particularly between India and Thailand - pertaining to China. India has woken up from decade-long hibernation and is investing heavily in connectivity to Thailand through Myanmar, as well as to Nepal and Bangladesh. Connectivity to and in North East India is also getting a multi-billion dollar boost. Though most projects are taken up bilaterally, they should enhance connectivity in BIMSTEC, opening new opportunities to landlocked North East Region of India, Nepal and Bhutan.
Improvement in road conditions and, the recent opening of VISA facility through India-Myanmar land border, opened an array of opportunities. An Imphal-based entrepreneur was quick to launch package tours to Mandalay. Another local business is planning to run charter air services to Mandalay. The gains are shared. Myanmar will get tourists and, the Imphal hospitals are getting medical tourists. India’s outbound tourists (5.4 million) are increasing by 25% a year but Myanmar is yet to get a share of it.
So where does BIMSTEC fit into the scheme of things? In many ways than one. That it's not merely a trade block, helps the purpose. The optimal utilisation of Trilateral Highway and the success of the Dawei deep-sea port in Myanmar, as a low-cost alternative, to reach Thailand and CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam) countries, avoiding the Strait of Malacca; depend on the seamless movement of vehicles. This is easier said than done. Thai truckers resisted such proposals in the past. And a similar agreement among BBIN nations couldn’t be implemented yet due to resistance from Bhutan on environmental grounds. Can BIMSTEC help end the deadlock?
 |
| Panel discussion at WTC-Mumbai on BIMSTEC. Right to Left- Prof Prabir De, RIS, Delhi; Suresh Kumar, Jt DG, Directorate General of Shipping; Saugata Bhattacharya, Sr VP, Business and Economic Research, Axis Bank; Sohai Jaria, member-executive committee, Indo Myanmar Chamber of Commerce and Industry and; me. |
Most or Many of the rivers coming down from Nepal and Bhutan are finally ending up in Bangladesh through India. There is no common mechanism for flood control, resource sharing and utilisation like water transport.
In the days of climate change and erratic rainfall, these rivers often cause heavy damage in lower riparian areas. Flash flood coming down from Meghalaya caused major loss of life and crop in Bangladesh in 2017. More investment in granular observatories in the snow catchment areas of Bhutan, Nepal and North East and quick flow of information can minimise damage. Third Pole reported how quick alert from China on an unprecedented rise in water flow in the Brahmaputra helped minimise the flood impact in Assam, this year.
BIMSTEC doesn’t have the magic wand to solve all problems. But it can surely sensitise issues. Here are some suggestions:
1) India is a vast country where States have a lot of constitutional authority. Involve key States like West Bengal, Bihar, UP and North Eastern States in BIMSTEC programmes.
Bodh Gaya attracts lakhs of tourists from Buddhist nations. Bihar Must be responsible for their safety security, food and hygiene.
West Bengal must not keep a blind eye to local hurdles to ensure smooth transit of cargo.
In North-East, culture and language change in every 20 km. And, policies often become prisoners of Naga-Kuki, Kuki-Meitei, Mizo-non-Mizo conflicts. We need more sensitisation.
2) We deserve more intense air connectivity. While major BIMSTEC cities are connected. There are serious deficiencies in non-major centres. Manipur and Mizoram are, for example, desperate for connectivity with Myanmar. Similar demand may arise from other member countries and destinations.
India government has plans for increasing air connectivity to the neighbourhood. But it is yet to take off. Mapping of traffic potential, infra gaps and devising a suitable framework may help attract private investments.
3) With reference to India, spread out BIMSTEC activities beyond Delhi and involve media and local chambers. Involvement of chambers brings media coverage. If BIMSTEC has funds, consider offering some media fellowships to create future equity.
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