BJP’s comfortable win in Gujarat and Himachal; lessons for media; and outlook for elections ahead

Pratim Ranjan Bose

As the results are out, BJP should close the 2017 Assembly Election in Gujarat with 104-odd seats (the final numbers are still awaited) out of 182 in Gujarat. Approximately 10-11 short of the 2012 tally. BJP’s loss is Congress’s gain.

However, Congress’s gain would look minimal if you consider BJP is in power for 22-years, faced a united Opposition (with Rahul Gandhi even turning to Temple to woo Hindu votes) and, this is the first election after roll out of GST, India’s biggest reforms initiative since liberalisation.

As a rule, every major economic reform dents the ruling party’s election prospect. It happened with liberalisation in 1991. It happened again in 2004. Yet BJP pulled a comfortable win in this business class dominated, highly urbanised state (it has some 10-12 scheduled airports).  To cut the long story short, Gujarat election results defied the thumb rule laws of anti-incumbency anti-establishment voting. BJP also won the small Himachal Pradesh from Congress.

And, I anticipated this outcome. I haven’t been there for election coverage. But I was a regular visitor to this State between 2006 and 2012 and some of these contacts are still alive. It was by virtue of this limited understanding, I was confident that BJP would win. What came as an icing on the cake, was estimates presented by a friend and senior BJP member. Before the first round of polling took place, he quoted a tally of 105-110.

Electioneering is very complex math. And all through my life, I found good politicians have a solid grip on this math. Way back in 2001, when everyone was expecting Trinamool to replace Leftists in West Bengal; a Congress leader presented a diametrically opposite estimate. It came true to the last detail.

Why media fails?

Having said this, I am sure political journalists know about this maths better than I do. Why then, media presented a different picture till the exit poll results were out?

I remember one particular media house predicting a Congress sweep in the Opinion poll. They corrected the estimates in the exit poll but meanwhile, pages were filled with reports that almost took Congress to victory!

Congress is literally a owned by Nehru-Gandhi. And, Rahul has been managing show for quite some time (earning series of humiliating losses to the party, the last one was in UP only six or seven months ago) with her Italian mother, Sonia, at the top seat. Now he has formally taken over the top job!  And, newspapers went ecstatic. Front pages were filled with eulogies. Important announcements like the introduction of E-Way bill from Feb 1 were relegated to inside pages.

I am not against the principled support of a journalist or a media house to any particular brand of politics.

But I will not allow my political bias to cloud my analysis on the election outcome or the merits of GST or the performance of Modi or Manmohan government. If I deviate from this golden rule, I am surely not into journalism. Mind you, this is not merely a case with Gujarat election. Media failed to predict the groundswell in favour of demonetisation. It failed to read UP election.

Not in India alone. What happened to predictions in the US poll or Brexit? I don’t think, journalists suffer from lack of competence. Each of us has years of experience and training in handling information. The answer lies elsewhere.

Probably, we are mixing our opinion space and reporting space.  And, by doing so we are digging the grave of journalism. It is no good sign that people started taking those shitty Whatsapp forwards, more seriously than reports in media. The relationship of trust with readers is breaking. It is is no good for the country or the world that media is losing its social influence. 

2018 crucial for BJP

Meanwhile, the political scene in India will remain complex in next one and a half years as the general election is due in April-May 2019. Interestingly, this is also the period when Narendra Modi and BJP will have all requisite numbers in the Parliament to take any decision they want.

BJP currently has the number in the Lower House or Lok Sabha but lack them in the Upper House or Rajya Sabha. The series of wins in State elections in the last three years is scheduled to put BJP in the driving seat in RS as well in 2018.

It is to be seen how BJP uses this opportunity. But normally a poll-bound State avoids taking harsh decisions. It is common sense that BJP would rather look forward to coming back to power with equal vigour in 2019 Lok Sabha Election and start taking harsh decisions.

The question is: Will it be a cakewalk? I don’t think so. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh - three BJP ruled States will go to polls in 2018.

The party is in power in both Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh for two decades facing anti-establishment sentiments. BJP won Rajasthan in record margin in 2013 but this desert State also has a history of changing governments in every five years.

It would be a tall task for BJP to retain these States, especially Rajasthan. The fight will be intense for both Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. Congress-ruled Karnataka will also go to polls in 2018 but, as things stand now, BJP has less chance to win this State.

So will BJP come back to power in 2019? Most probably yes. One primary reason behind, is Modi remaining a favourite of voters, and Indian voters established it time and again in last three decades that they can take different views depending on the status of the election.

Nevertheless, BJP may be in the back foot in 2019 with regard to MP, Rajasthan and Chhatisgarh having a total of 65 MP seats. But the lost numbers may be compensated by party’s gain in at least two major States, Odisha and West Bengal, having 63 MP seats of which BJP got barely three in 2014.

Both West Bengal and Odisha are ruled by regional parties or forces for too long with the ruling parties dominating every poll right from local body to MP. Any breach in their stronghold, therefore, indicates far-reaching changes in the days to come.

BJP did exceedingly well in Panchayat election in Odisha against the ruling BJD, in 2017. If the trend consolidates, BJP may win 2019 Assembly and General election in Odisha.

In West Bengal, Left is now a shrinking force and Congress is facing extinction (except in two districts). BJP is filling the gap. Contrary to media reports, the party has developed strong rural base and should improve their tally significantly in 2019.

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