Pratim Ranjan Bose
West Bengal Chief Minister
Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress government are in serious trouble.
On Sunday evening the Union home
ministry issued a warning to the State government for failing to ensure law and
order. Though formally referred as an “advisory” by the Centre, under the
provisions of the Constitution; the tone and tenor of the note makes it
eligible to be considered as a ‘directive’.
The sharp warning came in the
wake of recent post-poll violence at Sandeshkhali in Trinamool-controlled
Basirhat constituency in North-24 Parganas district in the outskirts of
Kolkata. At least three persons -including two affiliated to BJP and one from
Trinamool – died in the clash that took place on June 8. According to BJP, at
least five of their supporters were killed in the violence.
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| Pix courtesy: The Quint |
Post-poll violence is not new in
Bengal. Over the decades, it has become more of a norm. But the development on
Sunday indicates that the Narendra Modi government may not follow the beaten
track and, that left Banerjee fuming.
The indications are clear. The
Centre is keeping a close eye on West Bengal. They will keep following the
issue. And if the State fails to comply, despite repeated warnings; the Centre
has the right to take executive decision to impose President’s Rule in Bengal
for two months. Extending the President’s Rule, however, would require the
consent of both houses of the Parliament.
So, is the Centre looking at
replacing an elected government by force? May not be.
It is understood, the Narendra
Modi government actively considered the option in February this year - just
before the General election - when Mamata Banerjee took to the streets in
support of the controversial former top cop of Kolkata, Rajeev Kumar, who was
facing CBI (Central Bureau of Investigations) enquiry on the chit-fund scam.
While the State police also harassed CBI, Banerjee went on Dharna with Kumar by
her side.
There was no precedence of a
Chief Minister taking such a conflict course against the Centre for a Central
cadre police officer, in the history of Independent India. The Centre read it
as an attempt to challenge the Constitutional powers of the Indian government
by a provincial government – which again, is unprecedented.
Sources say Modi1.0 weighed the
options of President’s Rule in February but gave it up as they were not sure
about the political impact ahead of the General election. They were concerned
that such an action - even if legitimate – might trigger sympathy wave for
Mamata. In short, the Modi government was afraid of the popularity of Mamata
Banerjee.
That fear factor is now gone.
The General election proved beyond doubt that Modi’s popularity increased
nationwide and Mamata lost ground in Bengal. Her party now has practically no
control in entire Northern and Western parts of the State. And, her
organization is wiping out across the State, as ground level workers are joining
BJP en masse.
In fact, a repeat election may
now find, her party struggling to retain half of the seats, they won only three
weeks ago on May 23. From a popular Chief Minister, Mamata Banerjee is now in a
race for the most unpopular slot in the history of West Bengal.
This is not the only factor
emboldens the BJP government at the Centre. It is widely anticipated that
Trinamool Congress is now awaiting large scale defection of MLAs and MPs. Will
they go to BJP? May or may not be. They may rival Banerjee’s supremacy in the
party, or whatever is left.
Theoretically, Mamata could stop
the downslide by changing her politics. But she didn’t. She continued her trade
against the Centre and is trying to remain politically relevant depending on
minority votes, which control little less than 100 constituencies in Bengal,
more than ever. She openly sought the support of Muslims at the largest Eid
gathering this year.
She might get the support of
some in the community. But, it is unlikely that the entire community will
follow her blindly. A senior cleric warned Muslims to fall in the trap of
partisan politics, in the presence of Mamata and advised the community to focus
on mainstreaming.
In the final analysis, Mamata
may now have definite control in 50-60 minority-heavy assembly constituencies -
like Sandeshkhali, which is now in news - out of 294.
And, the BJP is not in a hurry
to overthrow her government. Ideally, the Centre cannot extend President’s rule
beyond two months as BJP doesn’t have the majority in the Upper house of the
Parliament. The directive issued on Sunday may be one step towards weakening
her.
It found Mamata in a serious
problem. She was in the mood to postpone the election in many rural and urban
bodies, citing post-poll violence, so as to avoid losing further ground to BJP.
But now she will not have much choice. And as BJP will gain more strength,
Trinamool will be further weakened from inside.
Who knows West Bengal may be
heading for an early, free and fair election, under the President’s rule. Ideally,
that's the best option for BJP to come to power in West Bengal.
***
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