Solution soon on Madhesi issue? Ball in Kathmandu's court, as New Delhi denies to 'interfere'

Pratim Ranjan Bose

“Not taking a decision is a decision in itself,” India’s visionary former Prime Minister P V Narasimha Rao, once famously said.

It is not known if the upland-elite dominated ruling class in Kathmandu are avid followers of Rao; but, they have nearly pushed the country to the brink by sidestepping a decision on the just demand of Madhesi, Tharu and other communities (loosely referred as Madhesi here) from the Southern plains, for equality and federalism.

The angry Madhesis blocked the main trade route of Nepal for the last four months, inflicting major damage to the economy, giving rise to black marketing of essentials, like fuel, and causing tremendous hardship to common Nepalis, especially the earthquake hit poor in the hills at the onset of winter.

Political map of Nepal

But, neither the coalition government of K P Oli, a known Madhesi hater; nor the principal Opposition, Nepali Congress have shown adequate interest to treat the issue with dignity.

On the contrary, they are playing a political football with it. The economic plank is limited to either flashing of ‘china card’ or India-bashing that is a popular currency in Kathmandu.  

The deep divide

To understand the reasons behind the current controversy one must take a look at the neglect and discrimination meted out by Kathmandu to nearly one-third of the country’s population.

Decades ago, they needed a pass to go the capital city. The restriction was withdrawn in the 1950’s, but Madhesis were all across treated as outsiders in their own land – a land that they claim to have once ruled, much before most of the hill population migrated to Nepal from today’s India.

It is not important to go back to the history. What is more important is to understand the deep divide between the two sides.

Madhesis have matrimonial links with neighbouring Indian states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. They prefer wearing dhoti-kurta (that is commonplace in the entire North India) over Daura-Suruwal (pajama, long shirt and topi), the traditional costume in the hills. Their mother tongue is Maithili or Bhojpuri, not Nepali.

Such cultural diversity is not uncommon in the subcontinent. Like India, Nepal is multi-cultural too. But the feudal, if not racist, approach of the ruling class, made all the difference here. They were never keen to share power with ‘dhotis’ or ‘Biharis’ – as Madhesis are commonly referred - and, denied every opportunity to bridge the gap.

Kathmandu spends a fraction of its development budget in the plains that contributes over two-third of the tax revenue. Any doctor working in the area will tell you about the high incidence of poverty and illiteracy at the Madhesi heartland of Janakpur.

Angry Madhesi youth driving the movement

Almost all senior government officials, media persons and social elites you meet in Kathmandu are of hill origin. Madhesi representation in armed forces is negligible. And, out of top 10 districts of Nepal which send the largest number of workforce overseas, nine are from the plains.

But ask a hill politician and rarely will he admit the discrimination. Instead, they will complain against India for taking the side of Madhesis, knowing fully well that until recently India hardly cared for them.

India’s historic neglect

A couple of examples will make India’s historic lack of attention to the plains, amply clear.

First, India is one of the principal donors to Nepal. “But barely 20 percent of the country’s Nepal aid is spent on Terai (Hari Bansh Jha, Whither Madhesh, my Republica, October 8, 2014). Second, though India offers countless scholarships to Nepali citizens, you will need a microscope to find Madhesi names in it.

The third example is a trickier.

In January 2007, when Nepal was moving ahead to form the first democratically elected government in May 2008, Madhesis put up a strong case for due political equity in a democratic Nepal.

The movement, originally spearheaded by a civil rights group (Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum, Nepal, of Upendra Yadav), was significant for two reasons: (a) It challenged the stranglehold of all established parties, including Maoists, in the plains and (b) the mass support to the movement underscored popular aspirations of the people of the region.

For the next one year, Terai saw more violence and strikes than ever. The movement went through many twists and turns, including a split in leadership, before entering a decisive phase in February 2008 when Madhesis called an indefinite strike to force the interim government to carve out the political space for Madhesis before Nepal went to the election in May.

The southern plains of Nepal

The strike had a crippling effect on the economy. But before it could bring Kathmandu to its knees, the Manmohan Singh government (2004-2014) in New Delhi literally forced Madhesis to sign on the dotted lines.

They strike was withdrawn after 19 days (some say 16 days) with the government promising to fulfil those demands once they bring the new constitution of democratic Nepal at a later date.

After years of delay, the constitution was hurriedly promulgated on September 20 this year. And, as anticipated by common Madhesis, the provinces were demarcated in a manner so that the domination of hill districts remains intact in six out of seven States. This coupled with the shape and size of electoral constituencies will keep power balance tilted against the Madhesis.

All those promises made 2008, found their way to the waste paper basket.

Promises were broken again

The entire exercise was unclean.

The State restructuring committee formed by the first democratically elected Parliament (referred as first Constituent Assembly) proposed the creation of 11 States to give space to ethnic identity groups.

But as the ball started rolling in July-August; Kathmandu first proposed six provinces. The decision was soon changed for eight. But a mere two-day strike by upland population in Karnali, in early August, convinced the government that they should go for seven provinces.

But why did they go for such hurried demarcation?

Kathmandu says they wanted the issue to be handled by a Commission, combining academicians and civil society representatives, after promulgation of the constitution; but a Supreme Court verdict forced them to go for the demarcation before the Constitution is promulgated.

True, but they could wait for so many years, why couldn’t they wait for a few more days or months to achieve the consensus?

Kathmandu has little answer to this question. Probably they relied heavily on their time-tested floor management skills. Probably they thought they would accommodate a few more deputy prime ministers (there are six in Oli cabinet) and Madhesi leaders will sign on the dotted lines. Given a chance, that might have happened too. But the common Madhesis put a spoke in the wheel.

As I travelled through the riot zone last month, I could see barely 15 or 16-year-olds taken charge of the street. They have little faith on the system and, even on their own leadership. It’s no more a political movement. It’s a mass frenzy. The entire society is gripped by the hysteric call for ‘Madhesh’ - a symbol of their political, cultural and economic identity.

What was once a cultural divide, has now taken the shape of a deep emotional divide; which, if not handled with care and compassion, may invite disaster to both Madhes and Nepal as a whole.

It is doubtful if the political pigmies in Kathmandu are yet to realise that.

They have agreed to delimit the electoral constituencies but the core demand for amending the contours provincial maps will be taken to an all-party committee for resolve in next three months. But, given the track record of Kathmandu common Madhesis suspect the intention.

India distanced itself

If the frequent visits of top ministers and ruling politicians to New Delhi, throughout the last week, are of any indication, Kathmandu is now lobbying with India for an ice-breaker. The intention is clear, let New Delhi play the decider; so that they can keep the political constitutions in hill intact by fanning anti-India sentiments.   

The seven provinces

All the three major national parties - Oli’s CPN(UML), Prachanda’s UCPN(Maoist) and Nepali Congress witnessed sharp erosion in their traditional support base in the plains, in the wake of the current phase of Madhesi movement - and, are now dependent on hill constituencies, for survival.

There is every reason to believe that Madhesi leaders would also welcome India to push their demands to Kathmandu. They are happy that New Delhi didn’t join hands with Kathmandu to steamroll their protests nor did it try too hard to send goods to the upland – an act that Kathmandu kept referring as ‘Indian blockade’.

They also know that they have nearly lost control over the movement that had lasted far longer than they could imagine. The moderate forces in Madhesi Morcha (forum) are afraid that not taking part in the reconciliation process, may alienate them further from the hill population; giving Kathmandu fresh opportunity to declare the movement as secessionist.  But at the same time, the leaders are afraid that agreeing to Kathmandu’s proposal may drastically erode their support base in the plains.

It’s a deadlock. And, there is a tempting invitation to New Delhi to repeat its act of political interference in Nepal’s domestic issues. But the Narendra Modi government is now refusing to be caught in that trap.

India is already embarrassed at the monumental failure of its diplomatic apparatus in reading the minds of Kathmandu between June and September this year. Modi himself was taken aback by the shrewd play of Kathmandu, in November last year when he wanted to visit Janakpur, the mythical birthplace of Sita in the Hindu epic of Ramayana.

Modi was the first Indian Prime Minister, in 17 years, to visit the hill country in August 2014. The visit enthralled the Nepali population. In his address to the Nepali Parliament, Modi clearly underlined a shift in Indian strategy from a bullying big brother to a trade facilitator. 

So in November, when Modi proposed travelling down to Janakpur as part of his scheduled visit to SAARC summit in Kathmandu; little did he anticipate that the then Sushil Koirala government (February 2014 to October 2015) of Nepali Congress to play the ‘safety’ trick to prevent him from visiting the Madhesi heartland.

Janakdham temple that Modi wanted to visit

Some political analysts believe Kathmandu did disappoint Modi at the influence of the Chinese who surely didn’t enjoy the unprecedented popularity of an Indian PM in Nepal. If that is correct, China surely played a smart nuanced game.

In comparison, Indian diplomacy appears lazy and blunt, drawing ire from all sides including Madhesis - who had nearly lost their political constituencies by voting for Sushil Koirala over Oli, during Prime ministerial election in October, reportedly under Indian influence. It was Koirala government that promulgated the controversial Constitutional provisions, in September. He was replaced by Oli on October 12.

Time to take a call

The Indian establishment, as it seems now, is taking a more considered view on Nepal.

It is concerned that trouble in the plains of Nepal, if not resolved, may spill over to the Indian territories through the open boundary. There is a distant concern that if the mainstream politics in Nepal fail to address the popular aspirations, radical forces may hijack the movement.

New Delhi cannot be dispassionate about the Madhesi movement as it enjoys popular support in UP and Bihar. At the same time, it is fully aware that continuation of the blockade is not in the wider interest of India.

To strike a balance, the Modi government is now advising both sides to come to a resolution. But it denied being a party in such negotiation.

The Indian stand has put the ball back in Kathmandu’s court. 

The political actors in Kathmandu can no more survive the crisis by fueling anti-India sentiments. The China card has failed to resolve the humanitarian crisis. It's time for Nepal to take a call on its domestic issues.

There is still confusion if Kathmandu will rise to the occasion. But some are optimistic that the crisis to end soon.

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More on Nepal Crisis: 

1) http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/no-sign-of-end-to-the-deadlock-nepal-impasse/article7940811.ece

2) http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/at-a-crossroads-on-the-border-with-nepal/article7924117.ece

3) http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/madhesi-agitation-hits-nepal-economy-hard-ripples-in-india-too/article7916357.ece

4)  http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/are-indian-supplies-to-nepal-falling-at-undisturbed-gates-too/article7909317.ece#comments

5) http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/nepal-the-bad-vibes-between-the-hills-and-plains/article7905790.ece?ref=relatedNews

6) 
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/national/madhesi-issue-nepals-political-rife-delays-solution/article7896709.ece?ref=relatedNews

7) http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/with-no-end-to-protests-nepal-continues-to-suffer/article7884479.ece?ref=relatedNews