Pratim Ranjan Bose
The shock exclusion of the
ruling, People’s Democratic Party (PDP), from the final run for power apart;
the first phase of election in Bhutan (Bhutanese voters first pick up two
contestants for the polls) brought one good news for Delhi. In a welcome change,
India didn’t become an election issue in Bhutan in 2018.
Can India maintain this trend
in Bangladesh - a key partner of India’s Act East programme - where the
unpopular Shiekh Hasina government will seek re-election for the third term, in
the next few months?
More precisely, can Delhi avoid
public criticism and be more nuanced in ensuring India’s long-term goal of
geopolitical stability in the neighbourhood?
The question is important. The
region is showing strong democratic aspirations over the last one and a half
decades. The situation demands India be crafty in its approach, so as to avoid
public glare, which may potentially hurt its long-term interests.
The job is easier said than
done. Nascent democracies with weak institutions have their own set of
unpredictability. Legacy issues and fresh geopolitical complexities vis-a-vis
China, add to the complexity.
Yet, there is no escape from
the fact that changing times demands changed strategies to deal with
neighbours, each of which has their own peculiarity.
The recent highs and lows
indicate such strategies may still be wanting in India-Nepal relations. But,
the dealings with Bhutan rekindle hope that India is learning from our
mistakes.
Past mistakes
Indeed the mistakes were grave.
Take the case of Bhutan. The
mercury rose in 2013 election, over the Jigme Thinley-led Druk Phuensum Tshogpa
(DPT) government’s aspirations to build bridges with China, without keeping
either the King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck or India in the loop.
This was surely against the spirit of the
friendship shared by the two nations. The Manmohan Singh government wanted his
officialdom (Please read my previous blog, "The 'babudom' and India's bad vibes with neighbours) to fix the problem. They went for a quick fix solution. Hurried
trips were made to Thimphu. And a controversial ‘technical lapse’ in Delhi saw
cooking gas prices soaring in Bhutan for a brief period.
Thinley lost the 2013 election.
But India, China and the foreign policy took centre stage in the election. In
contrast, the 2018 election was a quiet affair.
There was no high profile
visits from Delhi, in the run up to the election. In the absence of any visible
impression of the so called ‘Indian interference’ the election campaigns
focussed on issues like corruption, rural development, health etc; over foreign
policy.
DPT finds a place in the final
round of 2018 but, as a second choice. The limelight was stolen by the newcomer
Druk Nyamrup Tshogpa (DNT) that aims to improve health services and bridge the rich-poor gap.
The final leg of the election
of Bhutan is due in mid-October. But the ability of this tiny democracy to
throw new options to voters is praiseworthy, which is still missing in a
populous Bangladesh, where options are limited to two dynastic parties.
The ruling Awami League
traditionally maintained good relations with India, while Khaleda Zia's BNP posed serious
challenges to India’s security in the past, due to its association with radical, pro-Pakistan, Jamaat-e-Islami.
The circumstances deserved
India to act during the last election (January 5, 2014) when Bangladesh was
rocked by violence over the War Crimes trial and the BNP-led opposition was
adamant to boycott the election, unless held by a caretaker government, as was the
norm in Bangladesh since 1996. Hasina changed the law in 2011, armed with a
Court order.
But the way India acted, left a
lot to the public imagination. The foreign secretary Sujatha Singh visited
Dhaka exactly a month before the election and met top leaders including BNP
chief Khaleda Zia.
One opposition leader, HM
Ershad of Jatiyo Party later told reporters that Singh was keen for his
participation to keep Jamaat out of the context.
Indian establishment
contradicted his statement. But the damage was done. “What was Sujatha Singh’s message?” asked The Daily Star, the most prestigious English daily of Dhaka in
December 2013.
As it turned out, Hasina ‘won’
the election with paper opposition, like Ershad, in the fray, as BNP stuck to
its boycott call. People of Bangladesh blamed India for subverting their
democratic aspirations.
Good signs
Things changed a lot in
Bangladesh since. Hasina’s popularity is in a free fall. She definitely did a
lot of good work. She broke the back of Jamaat, ensured peace in India’s North
East and, triggered fast economic growth.
But corruption, nepotism and
arrogance of party cadres, who rampage down the streets to suppress every
dissent - including the recent movement by school children for traffic
discipline in Dhaka - harmed her prospects seriously.
The most critical criticism
came from the former Supreme Court Chief Justice Surendra Kukar Sinha for
weakening the fragile democratic institutions of Bangladesh.
“In 2017, after the historic
verdict upholding the independence of the judiciary, I was forced to leave the
country and resign and exiled by the present government. It was unprecedented
in the history of the judiciary (of Bangladesh),” Sinha said in his recent book
A Broken Dream.
Under normal circumstances, the
advantage should have gone to the Opposition. But the circumstances are far
from normal.
BNP chief Khaleda Zia is
imprisoned since February this year in a fund embezzlement case. She is
unlikely to be released anytime soon. Her son and heir apparent at the BNP,
Tarique Rahman, is also delivered a jail term. He is in exile. Sustained
administrative pressure saw BNP suffering from a shortage of workers.
Two fronts, including one led
by Leftists, recently came up but they have limited prospects to attract votes.
Yet, a free and fair election
may see BNP throwing many surprises. They are trying for overarching seat
sharing arrangements with both the fronts. With Jamaat derecognised by the
Election Commission in 2013, BNP is temporarily free from the ‘radical’
baggage. Most important of all they shunned the path of India-basing and, is
trying to mitigate the trust deficit.
Its a delicate situation for
India. But chances are, it will not repeat the mistake of 2014.
So far the official stance
remained extremely nuanced. While Delhi maintained ‘status-quo’ on its
relations with the friendly government in Dhaka; it also insisted that India believes
in ‘free and fair election’.
Due to intense relationship on
all fronts and resolving of the old issues like the Land Boundary Agreement,
over the last four years; anti-India sentiments are now ruling low in
Bangladesh. Hopefully, India can retain this advantage in the days to come.
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