West Bengal Assembly Eelection 2021: The tide is getting stronger against Mamata with each passing day. A clean sweep by BJP is possible

(This forecast had gone wrong. Trinamool won the election with a huge majority)             

Pratim Ranjan Bose

 The ruling Trinamool Congress in West Bengal is in a hurry to end the ensuing assembly election. They wanted the Election Commission to combine the remaining four phases of polling into one, in view of the rising covid cases.

It is, however, questionable what bothers Trinamool the most – the second wave of corona or the rising levels of anti-Trinamool and pro-Modi waves, which are taking cyclonic proportions with every passing day.

As on March 27, during the first phase polling, voters were largely silent. The regular answer to questions on poll prospect was “dekhi ki hoy! (let’s see what happens) The odd ones spoke but in a hush-hush tone.

Some of course cheered for ‘Didi’, as the Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is referred, but their numbers were less. More importantly, privately many of them admitted to have paid cut-money to local leaders to avail benefits of development schemes including the rural employment guarantee (MNREGA) wages. 

 

Huge wave

Three weeks and four phases of polling down the line, the situation has changed dramatically. Visit the Trinamool bastions of Purba Bardhaman district, where BJP managed a lead in only two out of 16 assembly segments in 2019, people are expressing their displeasures with Trinamool openly.  

The striking fact is the resentments are not limited to any class. From the moneyed and educated in Samudragarh to roadside vendors at Kalna bus terminus, agricultural labour in Memari and civic volunteers at Bhatar - all are on the same page.

They denounce nepotism, corruption and high-handedness of local Trinamool leaders; criticise Ms. Banerjee’s focus on doles, and demand better economic opportunities to earn money.

The Rs 9000 per month job of a civic volunteer, allegedly attracts a ‘cut’ of Rs 2-5 lakh. From school teachers to college lecturers – everything allegedly comes at a price.  Bengal has never heard of such democratization of corruption.

The same situation prevails over every district, every corner of the State and people now want a respite. They primarily want a change.

Voters know BJP is not a paragon of virtues. The saffron party fielded turncoat Trinamool MLA Biswajit Kundu - who was part of an alleged scam in school teacher recruitment - from Kalna.

But, ask the commoners in Kalna about the poll prospect and they are putting BJP ahead. Voters, particularly young voters, have tremendous faith in Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The idea is clear: Let’s give Modi an opportunity to make things better.

Add to this the religious polarization, the after-effects of pseudo-secularism, which was pursued by the Left beginning 1990’s and taken to the levels of overt appeasement by Mamata Banerjee, there is a storm blowing across Bengal. 

To the misfortune of Mamata Banerjee, her politics is now being rejected even by the Muslims. They are equally, if not more, affected by all-pervasive corruption. Moreover, a sizable section of Bengali Muslims is alarmed by the rising polarization and its potential pitfalls.

Such resentment is finding voice through Abbas Siddiqui’s Indian Secular Front (ISF), which fielded candidates in the Trinamool bastions of South (31 seat) and North (33 seats) 24-Parganas, with 36 percent and 26 percent Muslim population respectively.

Trinamool won 56 seats in two districts in 2016. But the situation is critical in 2021.

 

Little impact of Sitalkuchi

Polling is already over in South 24 Pargana. In 2019, Trinamool maintained a lead in all assembly segments. In 2021, they should be in the backfoot in 15-odd Hindu majority constituencies. ISF is taking on Trinamool, in Muslim majority constituencies, which may open additional winning opportunities for BJP.

The situation is equally critical in North 24-Parganas, which will go to polls in the next two phases. Here BJP managed a lead in 12 assembly segments in 2019. The wave should give them an extra edge in Hindu majority seats in 2021. On the other hand, Muslim votes will split.

Many think that the Sitalkuchi (Coochbehar) firing incident, where four persons – all Muslims – died on April 10, offered Ms Banerjee an opportunity to re-consolidate Muslim votes in her favour.

Ms Banerjee surely didn’t let the opportunity go. She accused the BJP for “planning” the incident. However, it is questionable if voters are buying her logic.

On April 13, when Ms. Banerjee was sitting in a Dharna in Kolkata; Muslim voters in Amdanga in North 24-Parganas were openly cheering for the ISF candidate. They constitute half of the electorate here and Trinamool had a substantial lead in the seat in 2019.

If you think this is a stray case, you are making a mistake. Bad governance affects everyone. Unfortunately, Muslims do not have much choice. So, a majority of them may end up voting for Trinamool.

However, wherever they have a choice like ISF in 24-Parganas; Congress and AIMIM in Murshidabad (69 percent Muslim), minority votes will be divided. Many Muslims may also side with the BJP for political shelter.

 

Mistakes of Mamata

To sum up, people have made up their mind on West Bengal Assembly election 2021 with limited scope for revision. 

There is little doubt that the wave of resentments, if translated into votes, may cause serious damage to Trinamool’s interests. A clean sweep by BJP is possible. And, if that happens Ms Banerjee should only blame herself.

Looking back, her government is paying the price for two major mistakes – throttling of opposition voices and miscalculating the impacts of Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 to consolidate Hindu votes.

The Trinamool Congress government was in tussle with the State Election Commission from the word go, on issues regarding free and fair election of local bodies. The government’s intentions finally prevailed and the 2018 rural body election was a farce.

That was not all. Rampant floor-crossing of elected representatives to Trinamool weakened a weak Opposition. Most of such crossovers (a few dozens in two terms) did not attract the anti-defection law. They sat in the Opposition bench in the Assembly and sided with Trinamool in public.

Such policies took pandemic proportions in local bodies. In one incident, the sole Opposition member in an urban body joined Trinamool within a few hours of winning the election. With the arrival of BJP, as a viable force, voters are now ready to teach Trinamool a lesson.

Similarly, Banerjee underestimated the impact of CAA on the Hindu population who were forced to migrate from East Pakistan and Bangladesh for the last 74 years. No one knows their number, because no one kept a record of them after 1958.

But, they kept coming and today the population with lineage on the other side of the border is everywhere. Matuas are just a part of this population.

Barring a lucky few, the dominant majority of this population has a history of faking identities to stay in India. What pains them is they are treated at par with the Muslim migrants, who came for economic reasons and changed the demography of the state in last 40 years.

There is little doubt that implementation of CAA with retrospective effects will not be easy. But, the law came as a sentimental relief to these silent sufferers, who are now rallying around BJP. Ms. Banerjee saw the amendment from only one end of the spectrum.

 

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(All pictures are taken from the web)