Pratim Ranjan Bose
Lok Sabha Elections 2019, may
probably have the most interesting outcome in West Bengal.
For a State which is known for
giving too long a rope to the ruling party; 2019 should be different. And, that
would be a major shocker not only for the ruling Trinamool but also for a large
section of mainstream media, which kept a blind eye to the changing public
mood.
To my understanding, the 2019
election may be a near re-run of the 2009 Lok Sabha Election, when the TMC-led
Opposition got 26 seats compared to 15 of the ruling CPI(M)-led Left Front.
Left got 35 seats in the previous (2004) election. Trinamool got 34 in 2014.
In 2009, Opposition parties
entered seat-share arrangement to ensure a bipolar contest. In 2019, the
parties are divided, but their supporters appear to be united against TMC and
resorting to strategic voting. BJP is getting votes as a strategic alternative.
Add to this, the general
consolidation of Hindu votes to BJP; definite preference of young voters to
Modi over Mamata; split of 28 per cent Muslim votes (which Trinamool considered
its preserve) to various stakeholders including BJP (particularly in Birbhum
and Coochbehar) on local or national considerations and; stern management by
the Election Commission – this election may throw many surprises.
As per my estimates, which is
drawn on inputs received from multiple sources, including on-ground assessment;
of the 18 seats polled till phase-IV (May 29); 8 to 11 seats might have gone to
BJP. Congress may have bagged 3 to 4; and Trinamool Congress, which came to
power in 2011, is having anything between 4 to 6.
Trinamool may have suffered a
near wash-out in first three phases of polling when North Bengal went to polls
and is making amends in South Bengal, where it surely has a stronger support base
and better poll machinery.
As for methodology, I have been
armed with constituency-wise pre-election and post-election analytics which
takes care of the trends, momentum, last minute electoral engineering by
parties and last but not the least the public mood, which I believe is getting
stronger against Trinamool.
West Bengal has 42 seats. So, a
lot of polling is yet to be held. Trinamool will do better in South Bengal.
They may also emerge as the single largest party in terms of seat-share, in a
four-corner poll. But, the trend is probably set.
If we remember the past trends,
dramatic rise of the Opposition in Parliamentary election generally set the
course for change in State government in the following Assembly election; and
whosoever was out of power, rarely came back.
The only exception to this rule
was in 1989 when Congress failed to farther the major lead it got in 1984.
However, the 1984 election was an exception too.
Meanwhile, for the first time,
Chief Minister Mamata Bannerjee’s rallies are failing to attract too many
people. On the contrary, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is proving a
crowd-puller.
On April 29, Modi held two
meetings in the same district. Each rally was attended by 1-1.5 lakh people.
For many reasons than one, there was little prospect of mobilizing this large
crowd from far away destinations.
The symptoms are clear:
Trinamool Congress is facing an anti-incumbency wave and is losing its iron
grip on voters. There were very few one-sided acts of violence by the ruling party in the last four
phases of the poll. Each such action was retaliated by Opposition supporters
with equal measure.
Party insiders admit this. After
the fourth phase, a top poll-manager of Trinamool predicted, in close quarters,
that BJP might get 15 seats. Till last week, he was not ready to give BJP more
than 10 seats.
It is surprising how mainstream
media missed this trend, while digital and social media is full of loud hints.
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