Two weeks since Verdict2019, Trinamool is staring at wipe out from Bengal’s political landscape

Pratim Ranjan Bose

  

BJP created history in 2019 General Election by winning 18 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal, which has been delinked from the national politics since 1977 when Left Front came to power replacing Congress.

If the trend continues, BJP will create an even bigger history in the next two years.

Officially the next election is due in 2021. But, the sustained erosion of popularity of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress, may open a plethora of opportunities of political manoeuvring by BJP. 

There is the scope of debate if BJP can get an absolute majority in the State. But, anyone with his/her nose on the ground, will agree that at this juncture, Trinamool is in no position to reach anywhere near the winning margin.

In fact, a re-poll might see Trinamool losing half of the Lok Sabha seats it had own on May 23 verdict. 

From auto-rickshaw drivers to government employees – the government is facing a million mutinies.  Officers are lying low. Police are careful. Barring some pockets, party workers are in a hurry to leave the sinking ship. And, when the workers leave, leaders cannot be far behind.

With some exceptions, the scene is the same across the State. Many rural bodies already went to BJP. Many others are with Trinamool, but merely on paper. They are eagerly awaiting a call from the BJP and, till that comes they have started working for the BJP.

There is not a single Trinamool flag for miles in parts of the State. BJP doesn’t have the ground force to enforce it. They were removed voluntarily to be with the wind.

There was no precedence of such a dramatic loss of popularity of any government in West Bengal. CPM retained its composure even after the drubbing in 2009 General Election.

Mamata has no clue how to stop this slide. Even kids are bullying her by chanting ‘Jai Shri Ram’. As a desperate attempt, she is now trying to fuel Bengali, non-Bengali divide or expressing her “commitments” to the minorities (read Muslims), more than ever.

But even that strategy is not finding the due traction. On June 5, Mamata used Kolkata’s largest Eid gathering to seek the support of Muslims.

To her dismay, a senior cleric advised the gathering not to rely on “any party”, and better mind their business and educate children, as part of the mainstreaming. This was unthinkable even two weeks ago.

Trinamool is not merely melting. They are evaporating, without any resistance; as is amply proved in a relatively low incidence of post-poll violence so far this year.

For a state where hundreds die in post-poll violence and ‘political violence’ became part of the popular lingo, for nearly half a century; this is abnormal.

Will it be the new normal? Can BJP free Bengalis from the grip of a pathetically regressive political culture that converted this strip of land, with an unparallel contribution in nation building, into an antithesis of growth and development?

We have to wait for the answer.

They didn’t do justice to their landslide win in Tripura, where inept party management is failing to keep the house in order. Taking turncoats from Congress, as an easy recipe to win the election, added to the woes.

BJP was about to make a similar mistake in Bengal last week, when they roped in controversial Forward Block turned Trinamool MLA, Manirul Islam. BJP thought the inclusion of Islam will bring them Muslim votes.

But the widespread criticism, including from Muslims, forced BJP to dump Islam within six days of his inclusion. Last heard, the party decided to avoid such cheap tactics, in the future.

BJP may have a limited interest to acquire power. But they should do well to remember that the people of Bengal are seeking freedom from prolonged misrule. They have turned their face from Mamata. BJP has to win their confidence.

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