BJP’s ‘Mission Bengal’: Book review and more

 Pratim Ranjan Bose

Over the last half a century, particularly since economic liberalization in 1991, India has changed a lot.

Chennai is now an auto-hub. Hyderabad is an IT city. Odisha and Chhattisgarh are top destinations for industrial investments. Sikkim is riding on the pharma boom. Extremism is replaced by peace and prosperity in Guwahati, in the North-East.

Only one major Indian State, West Bengal, remained out of this loop. Kolkata - which was the headquarters of majority index stocks, at Bombay Stock Exchange, till 1980’s - now barely has quality corporate jobs. 

While the age-mix is falling in other Indian metroes; Kolkata is ageing. It has the largest pool of senior citizens and the lowest share of 20 plus – a clear indication that the young and aspiring are giving the city a miss.

A major and definite reason behind this stagnation is the politics of isolation and conflict, introduced by the Left (1977-2011) and pursued with greater vengeance by the ruling Trinamool Congress of Mamata Banerjee (since 2011).

Jyoti Basu (1977-2000) government denied space to centrally-funded residential schools (Navodaya Vidyalaya) for the meritorious. Mamata rejected access of the poor and farmers to central welfare schemes.

Apologists argue that the regional nature of both Left and Trinamool prompted them to guard their territories. But that’s a half truth.

Regional politics was strong between 1977 and 2014 and still rules Odisha, Telengana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu etc. None made it a religion to oppose the federal government at every single step.

This shouldn’t and didn’t benefit Bengalis. But State governments survived decades through violent use of State and/or party machinery to establish virtual one-party rule that limited democratic options to voters.

Ideology has been a cover to legitimize the illegitimate.  There was a lame-duck opposition during Left-rule. Mamata went one step ahead to make the State ‘Opposition-free’. 

‘Political killing’ is commonplace. Terms like ‘pre-poll violence’, ‘post-poll violence’ are Bengal’s gift to the nation. Hundreds die before or after local body elections, where Opposition fails to submit nomination in 30-40 percent seats.

"Mission Bengal"

The politics of territorial control and conflict is now under threat from Narendra Modi’s nationalist BJP. For the first time since the decline of Congress in 1977, a national party is knocking the doors of power, in West Bengal.

From barely two Parliamentary seats in the 2014 General Election; BJP upped their stake to 18 seats (out of 42) in 2019 and is now aspiring to overthrow Mamata from power, in the 2021 Assembly election.

Considering the 34-year Left rule and BJP’s past weakness in the State (got the first member in legislative assembly in a 2014 by-election) since inception in 1980; this is a major development.

Journalist Snigdhendu Bhattacharya’s “Mission Bengal: A Saffron experiment”, published by HarperCollins is an attempt to chronicle this juncture of history. As the first such work on the block, it deserves discussion.

The book is basically a diary of events, offering blow-by-blow account of the moves and counter-moves by Trinamool and BJP, in the run up of the dramatic change in political scenario, particularly since Trinamool’s emphatic win in the 2016 Assembly election.

Among the negatives, it offers mundane details of the local BJP leadership, none of whom are capable enough to generate a swing that is essential to script a victory. It was Modi versus Didi (as Mamata is known) in 2019 and would remain so in 2021.

Having said that the book offers important details on the deep inroads of RSS – the mother organization of BJP – in West Bengal and the opportunistic politics of Mamata who was a coalition partner of BJP till 2007.

Oppressive and undemocratic practices pursued by Trinamool, particularly to win the 2018 rural body election and; rising religious divide, as evident in the series of communal riots that the State had witnessed in the recent past – are identified as major fault lines.

Religious divide

The issue of communal divide is important.

West Bengal has 28 percent Muslim population, third largest after Jammu and Kashmir and Assam. In the past, these votes didn’t follow any strategic pattern. But the trend started changing since 1990’s and ended up playing a crucial role behind the rise of Mamata Banerjee to power.

Nationally, the communal divide has been rising since the 1980's due to three primary reasons. (1) The wave of Islamic brotherhood , coinciding Soviet-Afghan war (1979-89).

(2) Rajiv Gandhi government’s ill-conceived decision to yield to the Islamic resistance to the Supreme Court verdict against the practice of Triple Talaq, in 1985, leading to consolidation of Hindu sentiments. (3) The demolition of Babri Mosque in 1992.

In West Bengal this period coincided with rampant illegal immigration of Muslims from Bangladesh (formerly East Pakistan), which was parallel to migration of Hindu refugees to India in the face of religious-social oppression.

Unlike the Western border, where the flow of refugees more or less stopped in two years from the Partition in 1947; the flow of Hindus from East Pakistan and then Bangladesh never stopped.

The India government stopped keeping count of refugees from East Pakistan beginning 1958 and didn't recognize any such entry following the birth of Bangladesh in 1972. However, Hindus continued to face discrimination in Bangladesh, particularly during the Army rule (1975-1990) and the first BNP rule (1991-1996).

In the absence of any official recognition, Hindu refugees from Bangladesh quietly slipped in India. In the eyes of the law, their entry was as much illegal as that of the poor Muslims entering the country for better work opportunities.

Snigdhendu proves that immigration of Muslims was way larger than Hindus in the early 1990’s and the political administration was active in making them voters of the country through the backdoor.

This was also the time when Left’s traditional support base was waning due to long stay in power.  in 1984, Mamata Banerjee won from Hindu refugee dominated Jadavpur Parliamentary constituency, once considered a bastion of Left.

The communists focused their attention on Muslims, who started showing signs of voting in a block, creating ground for today’s trouble.

In another decade, Islamists will riot on the streets of Kolkata demanding the scalp of the exiled Bangladeshi writer Taslima Nasrin, who was then staying in the city. In a few more years, this vote would move to Trinamool inviting the fall of the Left.

In 2013, when Dhaka was witnessing a popular protest demanding capital punishment to prominent pro-Pakistani Liberation War criminals; Islamists in Kolkata were demanding the scalp of the Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

 The anguish of the majority was rising. But there was no redressal to it in the absence of political resistance by the existing players - Left and Congress. It was at this juncture BJP entered the scene and got a record 17 percent votes – nearly three-fold rise from the previous average - in 2014.

It was time Mamata should have realized her mistakes. But she didn’t (as was epitomized by her 2019 statement - “the cow that gives milk, must not be wronged for throwing a few kicks” - with regard to allegations of appeasement politics) Riots followed in greater numbers.  Snigdhendu did a great job in chronicling such incidents.

BJP didn’t miss this opportunity. The Citizenship (Amendment) Act 2019 (CAA) proposed to grant automatic citizenship to Hindu (and other minorities) who entered India till 2014. This has also mitigated the concerns of Hindus over the anticipated updation of the citizenship roll.

 End of ‘Banglar Gorbo’?

Will BJP win the 2021 election in Bengal?

The book remained tentative. This is partly due to BJP’s organizational weaknesses in the State, and the Muslim vote riddle. The loss of BJP in three assembly by-elections in 2019, added to the lack of confidence.

The entry of high-profile election strategist Prashant Kishore or PK in the scene to support Trinamool’s cause further rattled the confidence of the author.

None of these, however, indicate recovery in Mamata’s popularity. By-elections are never the right indicator of the overall political mood. BJP lost important byelections in UP before sweeping the Parliamentary election in 2019.

In all fairness, Mamata and her strategist probably wants to create a perception of popularity to check the slide. But they themselves are not confident about the outcome as was evident in the postponement of urban body elections even before the COVID struck in March 2020.

Social media campaigns to project Mamata as the numero uno of Bengal politics fell flat on their face. The ‘Banglar Gorbo’ (pride of Bengal) campaign, launched during the pandemic, became a butt of the joke on the internet and was evidently discontinued.

 On a weak wicket

So what will happen to Mamata?

In my opinion, she is standing on a very weak wicket and the situation is steadily slipping out of her hand. Communal divide is just a part of the whole development. She is losing ground before smart politics by BJP and governance failures.

Mamata knows it too well. At a recent administrative meeting she complained that perhaps she did a bit too much for North Bengal, so people took her granted. This was a clear admission of her party’s weak fundamentals in the region.

BJP swept all seven Parliamentary seats in North Bengal in 2019. The region has over 50 Assembly segments and as things stand now, Trinamool’s seat-share may not reach double digit in North Bengal in 2021.

The tribal and forested parts of West Bengal bordering Jharkhand voted for BJP in 2019. Leave alone salvaging the situation, Trinamool’s organization in the area is now collapsing. The party strongman is on a collision course with Mamata.

Singur, in Hooghly district, in the outskirts of Kolkata, played a crucial role in creating Mamata myth. BJP was ahead in this assembly segment in 2019 Lok Sabha election and no one expected a reversal of fortune in 2021.

So, what went wrong for her? Many things. First and foremost, the all-pervasive corruption, and rent seeking by the political administration even in the face of worst calamities did hurt people.

During the pandemic, there have been sporadic protests even in areas where BJP barely exists, against alleged diversion of PDS foodgrain. The story was repeated over distribution of relief, after cyclone Amphan that ravaged the Muslim dominated districts of North and South 24 Parganas.

Add to this the high-handed attitude that suppresses every dissent. During the ruthlessly one-sided rural body election, BJP could put up some resistance in Purulia district. After the election, BJP activists were found hanging dead in public places. Probably they were celebrating success by committing suicide!

People are angry and they are taking BJP as an avenue to vent their frustration. Even a section of Muslims are participating in this trend. The CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey in 2019 indicated doubling of BJP’s minuscule Muslim vote share in Bengal since 2014.  

 The third point is political. Mamata introduced identity politics in West Bengal, by garnering community specific support. Some of them - like lower caste Hindu refugees and Muslims – had traditional differences.

The gap was explored by Modi’s BJP which excelled in consolidating Hindu votes, breaching all caste barriers beginning 2014. If V P Singh was credited for disintegrating Hindu votes, through the famed Mandal Commission report. Modi would be known for breaking those barriers open to take BJP's popularity to historic high.

The expertise is now coming to use in West Bengal. BJP garnered substantial support of Hindu refugees in 2019. With CAA in place, the trend may consolidate in 2021.

A major attraction of BJP is its freshness and unique positioning in Bengal politics vis-à-vis Trinamool, Left and Congress. All three had a stay in power, have stake on the Muslim vote bank and all cast aspersions on BJP as a Hindutva party.

This gives rise to the perception that Left and/or Congress can join hands with Trinamool, if need be, to keep BJP out of power. BJP uses this to cement its position as the only option for every disgruntled voice that wants to replace Mamata. 

And, there are too many such voices. If some want an end to appeasement politics, some others want to take revenge for the political atrocities or rent seeking and, then there are young voters, who can no longer be fooled by this politics of isolation and jobs of civic volunteers.

Young voters were Modi’s biggest bet to come to power in Delhi in 2014 and they would be the prime movers of change, in Bengal, in the 2021 Assembly election.

 

***