Pratim Ranjan Bose
The misfortune of a Bangladesh is
its achievements are always under-reported.
Leave alone global media, which
didn’t see much beyond poverty in this part of the world, till about 20 years
ago, even the Indian media rarely pays attention to the valiant attempts of
this tiny Muslim majority nation, that was once a part of Pakistan, to chart a
distinct course of history.
Perhaps this has something to do
with its location. Conduct a snap poll in the elite Indian cities of Delhi and Mumbai – which dictate the life of every Indian
– any many may be at hardship in locating India ’s
East and North East - that shares 4100 km border, fifth longest in the world, with
Bangladesh .
If you take it as a brag-post, just
check out the number of media reports on how Dhaka is scripting a change the political narrative of the subcontinent from Pakistan influenced politics of mindless rivalry to collaborative growth; ignoring
pressure from the ultra-nationalist bogey, having substantial control over the
nation’s financial system; I don’t think you will find many.
Tremendous achievements
The collective amnesia is
surprising, considering Bangladesh ’s
track record of throwing surprises.
Her freedom from Pakistan , in 1971,
was a denial of the ‘Two-nation” theory that divided the sub-continent in 1947.
But what is more spectacular is Dhaka ’s
consistent attempt to rebuild an economy based on principles of democracy and
growth.
The job was, and still is, not
easy. The 24-year Pakistani rule had its trailing effect on the economy. From
cost inefficient energy economics to army rule; weak democratic institutions to
rise of fundamentalism and attack on minorities – Bangladesh
undergone the same set of problems that is so common with Pakistan
To add to its problems, the
genocide carried out by Pakistani army created a severe intellectual void in Dhaka that was
already suffering from landslide out-migration (of Hindus), one of the biggest
in the world history, during the Partition.
But, the striking difference
between the two nations is the resilience of Bangladesh (courtesy a rich Bengali
cultural heritage), in fighting these odds.
It took Pakistan more
than six decades to see a democratically elected government completing full five-year term in 2013. On the contrary, all elected governments in Dhaka
completed their tenure from 1990 with army slowly but surely finding the way
back to the barracks.
During the 1970’s and mid-1980’s Islamabad used to take pride in stronger growth numbers
than Delhi . Today,
it has nuclear bombs but the economy is in tatters. On the contrary, Bangladesh hasgrown at an average of six per cent, throughout the last decade. Leave alone Pakistan ; Bangladesh is today better placed than India in many
social development indicators.
And, they are craving for more.
The new paradigm
This aspiration is now bringing
the most prominent change in Bangladeshi politics through an overt support to
India-led regional cooperation initiative.
Delhi’s crucial support to
Bangladesh’s Independence, mutual interdependence and strong people-to-people
contact notwithstanding; Bangladeshi politics had all through revolved around
anti-India sentiments fanned by pro-Pakistan staunch Islamic influencers like
Jamaat-e-Islami and/or Bangladeshi Islami Chhatra Shibir.
Though a marginal force in terms
of electoral fortunes; Islamists took maximum advantage of Post-Independence
roller coaster to champion the cause of hate politics.
Throughout the 1980’s and 1990’s,
Bangladesh played host to
North Eastern ultras for common purposes with Pakistan and, was noncommittal to
cooperation initiatives, to put it mildly.
That the early promise of
friendship was engulfed by a sense of enmity can be understood from the fact
that the cross-border rail links which were snapped in 1965 were never restored.
I am not passing the entire blame
to Dhaka . But, it is history that the P V
Narasimha Rao government in Delhi did make a
serious attempt to amend the historic deficiencies on the part of Delhi by opening “Tin-Bigha corridor” to Bangladesh in 1992.
He was committed to moving ahead with cooperation initiatives for regional
stability and growth. But a Khaleda Zia-led BNP government belied his
expectations.
Things started changing sometime
in early last decade when the same Zia was in power. That the Indian companies
started taking the interest in Bangladesh
is a key pointer to this argument. The most talked about investment offer
during this period was a multi-billion dollar proposal from the Tata Group. It
is true that the investment didn’t materialise apparently due to Zia’s failure
to clear the deck. But, it is also correct that Dhaka
made some attempts to accommodate it.
Asjadul Kibrika a Dhaka-based
financial journalist feels, there were “both politics and economics” behind the
failure to accommodate the offer. He particularly points out inexperience of his country in handling such mega investment offers.
Consider India’s failure to pave
way for implementation of greater part of the $180 billion investment offer - inmines, minerals, power and steel projects - in Orissa, Chhatisgarh and
Jharkhand from the world biggies like Posco or Mittal; and you know Kibria has a point.
Culture is not restricted in the
rendition of Rabindra Sangeet (Tagore Songs that the Bengalis are so fond and
proud of), it also plays a role in the prosperity of a Gujarat and the poverty
of Bihar . And, Dhaka
now understands it more than ever.
The Sheikh Hasina-led Awami
League government in Dhaka is now out to change the political culture of
Bangladesh from the root by formally giving a red-carpet welcome to Indian
investments, responding to all connectivity proposals between the two countries
and, helping create a common market in the East that can be harnessed by either
side for mutual prosperity.
Emerging possibilities
In a way, Dhaka ’s
aspirations have many similarities to the liberalisation of the Indian economy
in 1991 that had changed the course of Indian politics forever. From 2004, a
dominant majority of the elections in India was won or lost on growth
issues.
Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA
government did enough to ensure future growth but lost the 2004 election as the
fruits of such initiative were yet to reach people. The same people voted a
corrupt Congress-led UPA government back in power in 2009, courtesy the high
growth regime. And, as the growth rates became sluggish they brought in a
Narendra Modi-led NDA in power in 2014.
From the communist-led Tripura
government to regional Telegu Desam -led Andhra Pradesh every Indian State West
Bengal that was an exception to this trend, politics is now
revolving around growth.
In many ways, Hasina’s consistent
attempt to give cooperation a chance for last six years started impacting life
on either side of the border. Bangladesh
now sources 600 MW of cheap thermal electricity from India to meet part of the peak 1500
MW shortage. The supplies will increase in the days to come. Similarly, India ’s North East is now rejoicing freedom from
unstable data connectivity as Bangladesh
offered additional bandwidth on commercial terms.
It is not surprising therefore
that North Eastern states, especially Tripura is acting as a pressure group on
the Indian government to give more leeway to Bangladesh
to help Dhaka to fight the ultra-nationalist
bogey. And, in the evolving federalism in India ,
border States will play a role in Delhi ’s relationship with
neighbours.
Indian Corporates are keeping a
close watch on the changing environment and making steady moves. Though not
high in quantity, Indian FDI in Bangladesh
has increased exponentially in last two years.
But that is just a precursor to
the future growth opportunities. Indian tyre major, Ceat is setting up a plant
in Bangladesh
that will take advantage of zero-duty imports to cater both sides of the border.
Hiranandani Group of Mumbai is planning a floating LNG terminal on the coasts
of Bengal that will cater the demand of gas on
either side through a cross-border pipeline.
For a single product (textiles) country
that doesn’t have many home grown brands; Bangladeshi entrepreneurs will take
time to take advantage of the easier access to Indian markets. Also, stiff
restrictions on capital outflow are coming in their way to tap opportunities in
India .
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| Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina |
Hopefully, Bangladesh will respond to the need for reforms initiative else, its companies will find
roundabout ways to do tap opportunities.
Bangladeshi food products company,
PRAN, for example, invested in India
through an overseas outfit. The brand is enjoying a free run in seven North
Eastern States which are not duly catered by the Indian companies. Bangladesh is
losing the direct dividend.
Many challenges
The wall of mistrust built over
years will take time to dissipate from the public mind. Dhaka therefore, will
most likely face unjustified criticism for entering energy deal with India or nodding
to connectivity proposals. They are remains of an era when anything to do with India was
opposed tooth and nail. It’s a cultural issue and will not go away easily.
What is more important, the ultra-nationalist
and fundamentalist forces have developed strong roots in Bangladesh ’s
socio-economic-political system. It will take a long time to weed them out. Till
then, they will try their best to sabotage collaborative efforts.
The recent spate of killings in Bangladesh may
point at a concerted effort to create unrest and spoil growth prospects. It’s a power struggle and may reach brutal end, if it hasn’t already.
Will Dhaka
be able to take this in its stride? I am confident it will.
The world and the Indian
experience of liberalisation say it is difficult to open up ignoring vested
interests. But, once done, it’s unstoppable.
No one talks about erecting the Berlin Wall, once
again.
***
(Disclaimer: photos taken from the web. Will be removed in case of any complaint)
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