গুজবে কান দেবেন না।

গুজবে কান দেবেন না।

এই যেমন হাওয়ায় খবর, দিনাজপুরে জেলা পরিষদের পর এবার বিজেপি কলকাতা পুরসভা দখলের দিকে এগোচ্ছে। একশো চুয়াল্লিশ জন কাউন্সিলারের ভেতর ৮০ জন নাকি পা তুলেই রয়েছে। মেয়র হবেন শোভন চ্যাটারজি।

হাওয়া বলছে, দিদি নাকি শোভনের মান ভাঙ্গাবার জন্যে অনেক কাঠখড় পুড়িয়েছিলেন। কিন্তু তাতে চিঁড়ে ভেজে নি। শোভন আর দলে ফিরবে না। এদিকে কাউন্সিলারদের পোয়াবারো। কলকাতা পুরসভার মেয়াদ আর এক বছরও নেই। আগামী ভোটে তো জেতা মুশকিল। এখন যা হয় আর কি!

বিজেপিরও ভালো, বিধানসভা ভোটের আগেই দিদিকে বেশ একটা ঝটকা দেওয়া যাবে। তারপর এই “কাট-মানি” গুলোকে ঝেড়ে ফেলে দিলেই হল। তৃণমূল থেকে লোক নেওয়া নিয়ে দলে খুব রাগারাগি চলছে।

কিন্তু যা বলেছিঃ এসব গুজব, তাই কান দেবেন না।

গুজব তো আর একটা নয়। কাঁড়ি কাঁড়ি। কারা যেন বলে বেড়াচ্ছে দিদির প্রিয় বাংলা ছবির (যেগুলো আমি কক্ষনো দেখি না) নায়ক-নায়িকারাও তলায় তলায় গদ্দারদের দলে নাম লিখিয়েছে। অন্তত তিনজন তো বটেই। কি আর করে বেচারারা, খাচ্ছিল তাঁতি তাঁত বুনে, চাপে পড়ে ভোটে দাঁড়াতে হয়েছে। নইলে…।

তা এদ্দিন তো ভালই চলছিল। কিন্তু এবার ঘোর মুশকিল। রাজায় রাজায় যুদ্ধ হয়ঃ উলুখাগড়ার প্রান যায়। বিজেপি তো টালিগঞ্জেও ঢুকে পড়েছে। কদিন বাদেই ক্ষমতায় এলে, যদি দানাপানি বন্ধ করে দেয়? এনাদের নাকি এখন “ছেড়ে দে মা কেঁদে বাঁচি” অবস্থা।

শুধু কি এইসব। লোকের খেয়েদেয়ে কাজ নেই সাংবাদিক, আমলা, ‘বুদ্ধিজীবী’দের নামেও রটিয়ে বেড়াচ্ছে। সবাই নাকি দুবেলা মুরলীধর সেন লেনে মাথা ঠুকছেন। এক বুদ্ধিজীবী নেতা চিন্তায় আছেন। দু-দুবার জার্সি বদলের পর এবার বোধহয় আর জায়গা পাওয়া যাবে না!  কি যে হবে?

আমি কিন্তু এসব গুজবে বিশ্বাস করি না। দিব্যচক্ষে দেখতে পাচ্ছি, দিদি আবার বিপুল ভোটে জিতে নবান্নে ঢুকছেন। চারপাশ আলো করে ছারপোকার মত গুনীজন।

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BJP’s improved Muslim vote share in Bengal, and cracks in Mamata’s vote bank politics

Pratim Ranjan Bose

Tutiar Kuthi under Nayarhat Panchayat in Dinhata Assembly segment in Coochbehar has 85 per cent Muslim population, higher than the district average of 25.5 per cent (Census, 2011). With 25 per cent illiteracy, this border district in North Bengal is among the most backward in the State.

In the 2019 general election, BJP got 73 per cent votes at Nayarhat where the party doesn’t even have many activists. 

This was surely not an overwhelming trend. At Muslim-majority Chhoto Goroljhora in the same Assembly segment, BJP got a total of 16 votes in two polling stations. However, there is little doubt that support from a section, helped BJP to win Cooch Behar Lok Sabha seat with 48 per cent votes.

This is not the first time Muslims voted for BJP. According to CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey, BJP got eight per cent of total Muslim votes in 2014. The ratio was maintained in 2019 election which took the shape of a referendum on Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

However, CSDS-Lokniti says, in West Bengal, where BJP’s share of Muslim votes went up from two per cent to four per cent.

This is striking because, BJP barely had a presence in the State until recently, and the ruling dispensation of Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress has left no stone unturned to “appease” Muslim voters. Communal tension was steadily rising in the State since 2011 when Banerjee came to power.

Banerjee strategy was partly successful. She got more Muslim votes than in 2014. But, her government became hugely unpopular due to the gross failure of the law and order and all-pervading corruption. The partisan approach to a section of the population added fuel to the fire.

Interesting trend

Apparently, therefore, a section of Muslims dumped the partisan politics and joined the mainstream in voting against the misrule of the Banerjee-led Trinamool government. With Left and Congress lacking strength, voters picked up BJP as a viable alternative. 

This central theme was aided by many local factors.

For example, the NRC (National Registrar of Citizens) debate had an impact in Cooch Behar. And as in Assam (which has 34 per cent Muslim population against 28 per cent in Bengal), the focal point of the debate shifted to natives versus outsiders or migrants.

The Muslim-majority border districts of Malda (51 per cent) and Murshidabad (66 per cent) always had a distinct voting pattern. In the past, they were Congress bastions. In 2019 BJP won Malda North, narrowly lost Malda South and finished second in Jangipur.

NRC was a non-issue here. Voters rejected Mamata’s brand of politics that offers little space to the Opposition. Even Muslim appeasement became an issue here. BJP candidate Mafuza Khatun at Jangipur (Murshidabad) was most vocal about it. She got 24 per cent vote.

Birbhum (37 per cent Muslim) in South Bengal is one of the most conflict-ridden districts of West Bengal. In 2015, a Muslim village changed its allegiance from CPM to BJP to survive the onslaught on Trinamool. In 2018, the opposition couldn’t field a single candidate in the rural body elections.

In 2019, BJP got 39 per cent votes against 45 per cent of Trinamool amidst widespread complaints of booth capturing and rigging.

Joining mainstream

The Muslim vote-bank politics gained momentum in West Bengal since mid-1980’s or early 1990s.  If the post-poll sequence of events is of any significance, the vote bank politics will suffer more in the days to come.

Early this month, the Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee blatantly sought the support of the Muslims to fight out BJP in the Assembly election from the biggest Eid gathering in Kolkata. To her dismay, a popular cleric reminded the gathering that it would be foolish to bank on any party. Muslims, he said, should do better in educating their children.

For Banerjee, a bigger shock came on June 19, when a bunch of Muslim intellectuals wrote a letter to the Chief Minister reminding her that the government must not allow criminals “to get away scot-free because they happened to be Muslims (as is a growing perception)”.

The reaction came in the wake of the recent attack on doctors in a city medical college by a group of Muslims. The police were visibly slack in booking the culprits. The State government didn’t condemn the incident and even blamed doctors (and BJP) for observing strike until the situation snowballed into a nationwide crisis. 

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BJP unlikely to overthrow Mamata Government in Bengal. She might crumble, giving way to early election under President's rule.

Pratim Ranjan Bose

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress government are in serious trouble.

On Sunday evening the Union home ministry issued a warning to the State government for failing to ensure law and order. Though formally referred as an “advisory” by the Centre, under the provisions of the Constitution; the tone and tenor of the note makes it eligible to be considered as a ‘directive’.

The sharp warning came in the wake of recent post-poll violence at Sandeshkhali in Trinamool-controlled Basirhat constituency in North-24 Parganas district in the outskirts of Kolkata. At least three persons -including two affiliated to BJP and one from Trinamool – died in the clash that took place on June 8. According to BJP, at least five of their supporters were killed in the violence.

Pix courtesy: The Quint 

Post-poll violence is not new in Bengal. Over the decades, it has become more of a norm. But the development on Sunday indicates that the Narendra Modi government may not follow the beaten track and, that left Banerjee fuming.

The indications are clear. The Centre is keeping a close eye on West Bengal. They will keep following the issue. And if the State fails to comply, despite repeated warnings; the Centre has the right to take executive decision to impose President’s Rule in Bengal for two months. Extending the President’s Rule, however, would require the consent of both houses of the Parliament.

So, is the Centre looking at replacing an elected government by force? May not be.

It is understood, the Narendra Modi government actively considered the option in February this year - just before the General election - when Mamata Banerjee took to the streets in support of the controversial former top cop of Kolkata, Rajeev Kumar, who was facing CBI (Central Bureau of Investigations) enquiry on the chit-fund scam. While the State police also harassed CBI, Banerjee went on Dharna with Kumar by her side. 

There was no precedence of a Chief Minister taking such a conflict course against the Centre for a Central cadre police officer, in the history of Independent India. The Centre read it as an attempt to challenge the Constitutional powers of the Indian government by a provincial government – which again, is unprecedented.

Sources say Modi1.0 weighed the options of President’s Rule in February but gave it up as they were not sure about the political impact ahead of the General election. They were concerned that such an action - even if legitimate – might trigger sympathy wave for Mamata. In short, the Modi government was afraid of the popularity of Mamata Banerjee.

That fear factor is now gone. The General election proved beyond doubt that Modi’s popularity increased nationwide and Mamata lost ground in Bengal. Her party now has practically no control in entire Northern and Western parts of the State. And, her organization is wiping out across the State, as ground level workers are joining BJP en masse.

In fact, a repeat election may now find, her party struggling to retain half of the seats, they won only three weeks ago on May 23. From a popular Chief Minister, Mamata Banerjee is now in a race for the most unpopular slot in the history of West Bengal.

This is not the only factor emboldens the BJP government at the Centre. It is widely anticipated that Trinamool Congress is now awaiting large scale defection of MLAs and MPs. Will they go to BJP? May or may not be. They may rival Banerjee’s supremacy in the party, or whatever is left.

Theoretically, Mamata could stop the downslide by changing her politics. But she didn’t. She continued her trade against the Centre and is trying to remain politically relevant depending on minority votes, which control little less than 100 constituencies in Bengal, more than ever. She openly sought the support of Muslims at the largest Eid gathering this year.

She might get the support of some in the community. But, it is unlikely that the entire community will follow her blindly. A senior cleric warned Muslims to fall in the trap of partisan politics, in the presence of Mamata and advised the community to focus on mainstreaming.

In the final analysis, Mamata may now have definite control in 50-60 minority-heavy assembly constituencies - like Sandeshkhali, which is now in news - out of 294.

And, the BJP is not in a hurry to overthrow her government. Ideally, the Centre cannot extend President’s rule beyond two months as BJP doesn’t have the majority in the Upper house of the Parliament. The directive issued on Sunday may be one step towards weakening her.

It found Mamata in a serious problem. She was in the mood to postpone the election in many rural and urban bodies, citing post-poll violence, so as to avoid losing further ground to BJP. But now she will not have much choice. And as BJP will gain more strength, Trinamool will be further weakened from inside.

Who knows West Bengal may be heading for an early, free and fair election, under the President’s rule. Ideally, that's the best option for BJP to come to power in West Bengal.

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Two weeks since Verdict2019, Trinamool is staring at wipe out from Bengal’s political landscape

Pratim Ranjan Bose

  

BJP created history in 2019 General Election by winning 18 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal, which has been delinked from the national politics since 1977 when Left Front came to power replacing Congress.

If the trend continues, BJP will create an even bigger history in the next two years.

Officially the next election is due in 2021. But, the sustained erosion of popularity of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress, may open a plethora of opportunities of political manoeuvring by BJP. 

There is the scope of debate if BJP can get an absolute majority in the State. But, anyone with his/her nose on the ground, will agree that at this juncture, Trinamool is in no position to reach anywhere near the winning margin.

In fact, a re-poll might see Trinamool losing half of the Lok Sabha seats it had own on May 23 verdict. 

From auto-rickshaw drivers to government employees – the government is facing a million mutinies.  Officers are lying low. Police are careful. Barring some pockets, party workers are in a hurry to leave the sinking ship. And, when the workers leave, leaders cannot be far behind.

With some exceptions, the scene is the same across the State. Many rural bodies already went to BJP. Many others are with Trinamool, but merely on paper. They are eagerly awaiting a call from the BJP and, till that comes they have started working for the BJP.

There is not a single Trinamool flag for miles in parts of the State. BJP doesn’t have the ground force to enforce it. They were removed voluntarily to be with the wind.

There was no precedence of such a dramatic loss of popularity of any government in West Bengal. CPM retained its composure even after the drubbing in 2009 General Election.

Mamata has no clue how to stop this slide. Even kids are bullying her by chanting ‘Jai Shri Ram’. As a desperate attempt, she is now trying to fuel Bengali, non-Bengali divide or expressing her “commitments” to the minorities (read Muslims), more than ever.

But even that strategy is not finding the due traction. On June 5, Mamata used Kolkata’s largest Eid gathering to seek the support of Muslims.

To her dismay, a senior cleric advised the gathering not to rely on “any party”, and better mind their business and educate children, as part of the mainstreaming. This was unthinkable even two weeks ago.

Trinamool is not merely melting. They are evaporating, without any resistance; as is amply proved in a relatively low incidence of post-poll violence so far this year.

For a state where hundreds die in post-poll violence and ‘political violence’ became part of the popular lingo, for nearly half a century; this is abnormal.

Will it be the new normal? Can BJP free Bengalis from the grip of a pathetically regressive political culture that converted this strip of land, with an unparallel contribution in nation building, into an antithesis of growth and development?

We have to wait for the answer.

They didn’t do justice to their landslide win in Tripura, where inept party management is failing to keep the house in order. Taking turncoats from Congress, as an easy recipe to win the election, added to the woes.

BJP was about to make a similar mistake in Bengal last week, when they roped in controversial Forward Block turned Trinamool MLA, Manirul Islam. BJP thought the inclusion of Islam will bring them Muslim votes.

But the widespread criticism, including from Muslims, forced BJP to dump Islam within six days of his inclusion. Last heard, the party decided to avoid such cheap tactics, in the future.

BJP may have a limited interest to acquire power. But they should do well to remember that the people of Bengal are seeking freedom from prolonged misrule. They have turned their face from Mamata. BJP has to win their confidence.

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After UDAY: Banks are financing revenue gap of DISCOMS. Shunglu Committee recommendations goes for a toss. Powermin’s committee suggests short-cuts

Pratim Ranjan Bose

The weak financial status of electricity distribution companies (DISCOM) proves to be a major embarrassment for the Narendra Modi government of BJP. 

The embarrassment is not limited to the miserable failure of UDAY (Ujwal Discom Assurance Yojana) to bring any lasting change in the operational performance of DISCOMs, who had misused another – the third or fourth since 2003 - debt-restructuring opportunity. 

What is more worrying is, much of the good work done at the fag end of the UPA-II to prevent bankrolling of the revenue gap of DISCOMs – following recommendations of the as Shunglu panel in December 2011 – stands undone. 

According to a recent report submitted by a committee - which was formed by the ministry of power and, was headed by the chairperson of the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) - banks are once again financing unbankable DISCOMs to ensure electricity supply. 

The “Draft report of the committee on delayed payments by DISCOMs to Gencos/IPPs”, submitted in May 2019, pointed out that cash-starved DISCOMs are managing the situation by arm-twisting Gencos and bankrolling their finance gap. 

The report indicated that most of the DISCOMs are not eligible for fresh finances if banks follow the criterion for maximum permissible limit. However, they keep enjoying the benefit, simply due to the ruling political support and without any sort of guarantee from the States which was objected by Shunglu panel. 

“Most of the DISCOMs would not be eligible for any bank finance if Banks follow this criterion strictly.  However, in view of the fact that most of the Discoms are government owned and have a long-term relationship with the banks, the latter extend limited funds to the Discoms” the report said. 

The committee identified that as on March 31, the total outstanding dues of generating companies was Rs 40,909 crore, up by nearly 70 per cent in a year. This is excluding another Rs 15,000 crore outstanding of the RE sector. 

Of the Gencos, IPPs (Independent power producers) are the worst affected with Rs 15835 crore outstanding. Karnataka (Rs 5158 crore), Uttar Pradesh (Rs 4934 crore), Telangana (Rs 4801 crore), Andhra Pradesh (Rs 4539 crore), Tamil Nadu (Rs 4381 crore) and Maharashtra (Rs 3153 crore), together contributing about 66 per cent of the outstanding dues. Not to mention that UP and Maharashtra are BJP ruled. Andhra Pradesh was ruled by NDA partner for two out of three years of the launch of UDAY. 

Surprisingly excepting for two months, the DISCOMs never made full payment against the monthly power purchase, over the last fiscal (2018-19). Excepting Gujarat, Rajasthan and Haryana (partly), the DISCOMs of all major States are earning less than the cost of power. This is irrespective of the fact that the cost of power ruling low due to over-supply situation. 

A major failure

Energy occupied much of the time of Modi1.0. The government did an excellent job in scrapping theRangarajan formula for natural gas pricing, that would have offered windfall gains to domestic producers, and replacing it by a more realistic methodology.  

Deregulation of petrol, diesel prices was a huge favour to the economy. As was amply proved during the recent spike in crude prices; India adjusted well to market-driven pricing of fuel.  The era of subsidies and ‘oil bonds’ are over. Thrust to the national gas grid and city gas distribution were the right steps. 

But, problems in coal and power are hardly over. The domestic coal production surely increased at a greater speed than in the past. But dependence on Coal India increased manifold, as the captive coal mining sector literally collapsed. The coal block auction failed to live up to the expectation. Private Commercial mining is yet to take off. 

The situation is worse in the electricity sector. Some of them like stressed coal-based power generation assets, are legacy issues and, stems from the over-supply situation. The generation scene got more complex due to the fast increase in RE (renewable energy) capacity, particularly solar capacity, which now reached a significant 30GW or 8.5 per cent of the total (350GW). It would be wrong to blame the government for fast forwarding the National Solar Mission targets. The move was required to keep pace with the global power technology changes and the rising concern over climate change. 

But where the government failed miserably is ensuring good health of DISCOMs for the sustainability of its power-for-all agenda. As is now amply proved the hype created about UDAY, launched with fanfare in November 2015, was thoroughly misplaced.  The weaknesses became apparent when Jharkhand – the first State to sign up for UDAY – piled up a huge outstanding to the genco, Damodar Valley Corporation, within a year.  But the government ignored the alarm bell. 

Finding a shortcut? 

It is common knowledge that the lasting solution to the problem lies in broad spectrum reforms. With Modi2.0 coming to power with a greater majority, there is a definite opportunity for such reforms too. 

However, if the recommendations of the draft report are of any significance; the ministry appointed committee (appointed in Februray 2019, before the General election) may be looking at penalizing the fuel supplier, Coal India Ltd (CIL), for the failures of the DISCOMS and State level tariff regulators. 

The committee wants, CIL to payment forms for coal purchases through e-auction more flexible.  According to the committee, CIL now takes a minimum of four months to supply the fuel purchased from e-auction. It also urged DISCOMS to pay 25 per cent of the anticipated power bill in advance to Gencos. 

Will this solve the problem? Unlikely. Discoms will pay 25 per cent and delay the rest. Only CIL, being a State-owned company, will comply, if asked to. 

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