I have been studying the issue of
citizenship for some time. By now one thing is clear to me, there have been
inexplicable neglect on the part of the governments on the all-important issue
of citizenship - which assumes greater importance because of rising social
spend of the country.
Though provisions like the compulsory issue
of National ID were inbuilt in the citizenship law it was never taken forward,
to benefit vested interest groups. It is stunning to know that those of us,
Hindus from East Bengal, who were forced to come to India, mostly penniless, as
a natural choice given the religion-based Partition, had limited legal
standing.
Till date, India didn't make any legal
distinction between a refugee and an illegal immigrant. This is irrespective of
the fact that agencies right from Panning Commission to security agencies
pointed out the need for tidying up the affairs.
These are excerpts from a book project that
I am pursuing and based on a reference study. But from real-life experience, we
know this is true.
Almost all who came from East Pakistan or
Bangladesh had to fudge some document or other for living in India. That's all
they got for being Indian in letter and spirit, till some people dumped them in
hostile lands. Such experience starts with my mother (who is no more), my
friends and relatives.
Crores of Hindus who came to India from
East Pakistan were treated by the nation as a liability. The treatment was
reasonably different on the Punjab side.
It is stunning to know that till 1980, the
government used to refer to the total influx from East Pakistan and Bangladesh
as only 40 lakhs. The official documents are full of inconsistencies.
It is shocking to know that government was
so insensitive that the people migrating out of East Pakistan, due to sustained
persecution, were often treated as mere 'migrants' which has a distinct legal
status than a “refugee’.
While Bangladeshi scholars studied the
exodus of Hindus, Indian scholarship was not objective and didn't put pressure
on the government to address this issue. Very categorically, we were no one's
baby in the country we (the Hindu Bengalis from East Pakistan/Bangladesh)
considered our own.
Do you call this secularism? What
secularism stops you from reporting facts objectively? You must practice
secularism in your everyday policies. But you cannot brush aside the unique
history of dividing a nation by religion.
You cannot brush aside that a substantial
non-Muslim population became minorities in a (later became two Islamic
countries (Bangladesh now drops the word Islamic), which was formed by the
fundamentalist idea that a "Muslim's cannot accept any social system where
Hindus are majority" (Ref Jinnah’s speech during Lahore Resolution, Dey
Amalendu) or "Any discrepancy from Islamic Law is unacceptable"
(Iqbal, 1930 Allahabad).
How could you keep a blind eye that these
countries formed specific laws like the Enemy Property Act (Pakistan) or Vested
Property Act (Bangladesh) to rob Hindus from their property. Not only Hindus.
East Pakistan/Bangladesh’s history is full of references to the exodus of
Chakma (Buddhists), Garos (Christian) etc.
It is time the nation must answer why it
didn’t recognize such exodus by offering them citizenship, for so long. My
maternal grandfather fought for India’s independence. Why my mother had to
fudge documents to find a place in same India? Why?
There are crores like her in all families
who had roots in East Bengal. Why the nation had been so insensitive to them
for so many years? I regard Citizenship (Amendment) Bill 2019 as a corrective
step, and I do not think it’s a compromise to secularity.
The Muslim migrants from Muslim majority
Bangladesh come to India illegally for a better opportunity. Hindus came
because they had nowhere else to go.There must be a distinction between the two.
Updating the National Registrar of Citizens
(NRC) is the right and systemic attempt to clean up the whole system. Post-NRC
India should open its job market to countries like Bangladesh against work
permits or VISA.
Independent India faced the most
severe rebellion in the northeast, and as is now proved successful in
containing them too. The reference is important as the northeast is home of
some of the fiercest fighter communities with a distinct history of protecting
their territories from invaders till the arrival of history.
But as it came to Kashmir,
Indian strategists looked tentative till August 5, 2019; when the Upper House
of Rajya Sabha passed a resolution to enforce Indian Constitution in Kashmir,
superseding the provisions temporarily granted under the Article 370 to pave
way for its integration with the country post annexation.
To understand what went wrong in
Kashmir, one must, therefore, learn why Delhi was successful in containing
terrorism in the northeast.
During its long journey with
terrorism, India demonstrated two separate schools of conflict management
techniques. The first and the most revered school of thought may be referred to
as, ‘tire-them-out-while-talking’. This is best used in Nagaland, which
demanded sovereignty soon after August 15, 1947.
Nagaland was then part of Assam.
The next decade saw Naga insurgency reaching its peak and India granting
Nagaland Statehood with special privileges, particularly in the areas of land
rights, culture, religion (Christianity) and others under Article 371A (13th
Amendment Act, 1962).
Beginning in 1964, Nagas were
kept busy in tireless rounds of negotiation, alongside the security measures.
The results are before our eyes. Naga leadership is now too old and
tired. They spent most of their lives in camps in the jungle and have
little strength left to fight against the mighty Indian State. Nagaland is now more peaceful
than ever.
The second technique is ‘shock-and-awe’.
This was used in Mizoram in March 1966, when Prime Minister Indira Gandhi
ordered air-strike on Aizawl (Mizoram too was then part of Assam and the
Congress-ruled State government insisted on stern action) to break the MNF
(Mizo National Front) rebellion for sovereign Christian State.
Mizos (formerly referred to as
Lusei or Lushai) were head-hunters and was one of the last northeastern
communities to accept British rule, in 1895. They were not easy customers to
deal with. But was it enough of a reason to bomb them, in the same manner as
the US did to the Taliban in Afghanistan? There are not many references in the
history where an elected government used air-power on its people.
Having said that the stern if
not shocking action worked as Mizo rebels stopped entering into frontal
conflict with Indian State since 1966. And, 20 years later, when Rajiv Gandhi
offered a peace proposal, they readily agreed to it in return of religious
(Christian) and other privileges under article 371G (53rd Amendment Act, 1986).
Conflicts were not limited to
Nagaland and Mizoram. Insurgency wave gripped every State in the northeast.
Independence Days were always marked with violence. Road barricades and search
operations by security forces was commonplace towns and cities used to close
shutters at the sundown, till about 15 years ago. All that is history today.
There is nightlife even in Manipur, probably the most disturbed among the
northeastern States.
Noticeable like Kashmir;
religion (read Christian evangelism and rampant conversion till the 1970s),
external influences, all had (and some still has) a role to play in these
conflicts. The travel and training trail of insurgents, the arms and money
trail will give a decent idea of the external influencers.
But there were a couple of big
differences between Kashmir and northeast. First and foremost, the northeast
was not an epicentre of Jihad. Second, northeastern States never had as omnibus
power that Kashmir enjoyed under Article 370 of the Constitution. The State governments,
however corrupt and inefficient they are, willy-nilly worked under the guidance
of the Centre all through the seven decades. The article 371 used for the
annexation of territories starting from princely States in today’s Gujarat to
Sikkim in 1975, offered defined exemptions, mostly concerning land rights,
culture etc. True, it created anomalies. For example, Sikkim pays flat two per
cent income tax or the Union government doesn’t necessarily own the right of
minerals in Meghalaya. However, they were not as great power to challenge the
authority of the Union government.
Historically, conflict zones
attracted huge Central funding which ends up filling pockets of local leaders.
It happened in the northeast, as was amply deliberated by the V C Shukla Commission.
The Centre kept a blind eye to it for decades, and as peace returned, Delhi had
turned off the money flow.
The northeastern States no more
enjoy unending Central provisions under the ‘special category’. Beginning 15th
Finance Commission (2020-2025), they have to make efforts to earn their
bread.
Compare this with Kashmir, where
clever play by the Kashmiri leadership saw, the transitory provisions granted
under article 370 becoming a permanent feature. Kashmir was run on its own
Constitution that empowers the State to have complete control over almost
everything excepting national security and foreign affairs. And, the Centre
kept on footing the bills without legitimate right to ask questions. And, if it
dares to ask, Kashmir will play the Pakistan card.
What Kashmiri leadership did was
a pure breach of trust!
The Constituent Assembly that
was supposed to pave way for its integration with India, was dissolved without
recommending implementation of the Indian Constitution that naturally revokes
the provisions granted under Article 370. And, since the Assembly didn’t
recommend, the President never promulgated the Indian Constitution in Kashmir.
This was purely a fault in
designing Article 370 that didn’t define the responsibilities of Kashmir and
exemptions granted to it. On the contrary, the article virtually limited the
role of the Union government. Sheikh Abdullah used this to create a political
narrative that would survive on blackmailing Indian government at the drop of a
hat.
Article 370 made Kashmir a
country-within-a-country, while Article 371 merely allowed a Sikkim or a
Nagaland to maintain its distinction while remaining an integral part of India.
Kashmir, with article 370, swallowed Indian finances, to train guns at India.
Any argument would end up with the obvious reference of Pakistan and the UN.
This is exceptional.
What is more exceptional is, the
same Indian government that had so skillfully managed the conflict in the
northeast, gave in to the blackmailing of Kashmiri politics, despite repeated
demands for scrapping the benefits of Article 370 to Kashmir.
It is futile to discuss why
India didn’t correct the mistake for so long. Taking Kashmir issue to the UN
and the resulting drubbing in the hands of Pakistan might have taken a toll on India’s
confidence. Whatever the reason, Kashmir became a hot potato: India could
neither accept nor reject it.
The same Delhi that contained
Naga or Mizo rebels, looked uncertain in Kashmir. They were praying for good
senses to prevail over the Kashmiri leadership, which never happened. Kashmir
slipped into a near-perpetual web of violence for the last three decades,
costing 42,000 lives and a bad reputation for the country.
Delhi could neither keep
Kashmiri leaders busy in negotiations nor could it take any bold decisions.
Terrorists were born in thousands. In the absence of any accountability, the
money meant for the development of the State went on filling pockets of
Kashmir’s leaders, bureaucrats - most of whom own lavish properties across the
country.
It is naïve to expect that the
socio-political complexities created over decades, will be wiped out at the
stroke of legislation. But, what the Narendra Modi – Amit Shah did on August 5,
was nothing sort of a coup. It had shown the courage to shock-and-awe the
Kashmiri politics but in the most non-violent manner.
Just as Kashmiri misused the
provisions of Article 370 against Indian government; the government now used
the provisions granted under the article to deactivate it. That the assembly
was dissolved and the State was under President’s rule helped the Indian cause.
The law said President should
order implementing Indian Constitution based on recommendations of the
Legislative Assembly. The law also says that if the Assembly is dissolved,
Parliament can ratify or reject decisions on behalf of the State Assembly.
Jammu-Kashmir’s governor
recommended implementation of the Constitution to the President. The President
agreed to it subject to the approval of the Parliament. The Parliament cleared
it. The annexation of Kashmir was complete.
The craft of the Modi government
lies in the manner in which it presented the case to the Parliament. Kashmir
politics didn’t get a chance to create mayhem. Strict security arrangements
were made to avoid bloodshed. Kashmir already made a huge dent in India’s
image, we couldn’t afford more.
The Upper House, where BJP is a
minority, participated in a virtual referendum on revoking the provisions under
Article 370. (A separate bill was moved to carve out Ladakh and convert
Jammu-Kashmir from a State to union territory) And the results are known.
Not only that the Opposition
voted in large number to clear the resolution, but those who opposed it, like
Congress, are now facing a huge revolt within. Senior Congress leaders are
speaking against the party’s decision and at least one Congress MP resigned
from the Parliament
The reaction was unprecedented
to the least but was not unexpected, India waited for too long for resolution
of the Kashmir dispute. The plan to separate Ladakh from Kashmir was actively
considered for nearly two decades but no one dared to act. Modi did it and
without being as cruel as dropping bombs from the sky, as Indira Gandhi did to
Mizoram. Those who are referring this is undemocratic are merely fooling
themselves.
Most likely this shock treatment
will force Kashmir politics to walk the talk, as did Mizoram. I am comparing
the two because each of these two geographies are subjected to religious
hegemony.
After gas price
index, its time for India to prepare a coalpriceindex, which
is the first step to open doors to private commercial coal mining. Private sector was so far allowed captive mining.
A committee headed by the former Chief Vigilance Commissioner, Pratyush Sinha will meet stakeholders from power, steel and other industries on August 8 to start the process of .
If the indications are correct, the government
finally got courage to invite private miners. Though the legal framework was
created in 2015, the government was tentative so far, and was merely allowing
the State government owned miners in the commercial sector.
Creation of an index means, the coal price in India
will no longer be a preserve of government and Coal India Ltd but will be
linked to global market. This was also necessary to infuse efficiency in Coal India which was so far doing business without elementary market risks.
The government has already made coal price GCV based
in the past. During the first five years of Modi rule, third party sampling procedure was
introduced to bring transparency in quality of supplies.
However, introduction of private miners is essential
to ensure technical and operational efficiency. Barring mines under Northern
Coalfields the rest of Coal India mines barely follow the best practices in the industry.
Its nearly three lakh employees idle around and production growth comes from low paid
contractual workers. Mechanization is suffering.
All these should change.
But there is a fear. The power generation lobby that
speaks so much about coal quality is barely interested to give market price of
fuel. Their interest lies in keeping coal prices low.
Obviously generators can refer to the problems in
power distribution sector and the huge unpaid. But, they must remember that no
reform is ideal and reforms must start from somewhere. They cannot have the
best of both worlds.
From the business environment perspective, mining is
a more difficult task than power generation. In a country with huge pressure on
land, the miners are expected to keep acquiring land to keep production going.
And, t do that they face all sorts of local political nexus.
It is in the wider interest of the country that the
mining sector gets more productive, which needs private sector. And, private
sector will not come unless and until prices are reasonably freed.
এই যেমন হাওয়ায় খবর, দিনাজপুরে
জেলা পরিষদের পর এবার বিজেপি কলকাতা পুরসভা দখলের দিকে এগোচ্ছে। একশো চুয়াল্লিশ জন
কাউন্সিলারের ভেতর ৮০ জন নাকি পা তুলেই রয়েছে। মেয়র হবেন শোভন চ্যাটারজি।
হাওয়া বলছে, দিদি নাকি শোভনের
মান ভাঙ্গাবার জন্যে অনেক কাঠখড় পুড়িয়েছিলেন। কিন্তু তাতে চিঁড়ে ভেজে নি। শোভন আর
দলে ফিরবে না। এদিকে কাউন্সিলারদের পোয়াবারো। কলকাতা পুরসভার মেয়াদ আর এক বছরও
নেই। আগামী ভোটে তো জেতা মুশকিল। এখন যা হয় আর কি!
বিজেপিরও ভালো, বিধানসভা ভোটের
আগেই দিদিকে বেশ একটা ঝটকা দেওয়া যাবে। তারপর এই “কাট-মানি” গুলোকে ঝেড়ে ফেলে
দিলেই হল। তৃণমূল থেকে লোক নেওয়া নিয়ে দলে খুব রাগারাগি চলছে।
কিন্তু যা বলেছিঃ এসব গুজব,
তাই কান দেবেন না।
গুজব তো আর একটা নয়। কাঁড়ি কাঁড়ি।
কারা যেন বলে বেড়াচ্ছে দিদির প্রিয় বাংলা ছবির (যেগুলো আমি কক্ষনো দেখি না) নায়ক-নায়িকারাও
তলায় তলায় গদ্দারদের দলে নাম লিখিয়েছে। অন্তত তিনজন তো বটেই। কি আর করে বেচারারা, খাচ্ছিল
তাঁতি তাঁত বুনে, চাপে পড়ে ভোটে দাঁড়াতে হয়েছে। নইলে…।
তা এদ্দিন তো ভালই চলছিল।
কিন্তু এবার ঘোর মুশকিল। রাজায় রাজায় যুদ্ধ হয়ঃ উলুখাগড়ার প্রান যায়। বিজেপি তো
টালিগঞ্জেও ঢুকে পড়েছে। কদিন বাদেই ক্ষমতায় এলে, যদি দানাপানি বন্ধ করে দেয়? এনাদের
নাকি এখন “ছেড়ে দে মা কেঁদে বাঁচি” অবস্থা।
শুধু কি এইসব। লোকের খেয়েদেয়ে
কাজ নেই সাংবাদিক, আমলা, ‘বুদ্ধিজীবী’দের নামেও রটিয়ে বেড়াচ্ছে। সবাই নাকি দুবেলা
মুরলীধর সেন লেনে মাথা ঠুকছেন। এক বুদ্ধিজীবী নেতা চিন্তায় আছেন। দু-দুবার জার্সি
বদলের পর এবার বোধহয় আর জায়গা পাওয়া যাবে না! কি যে হবে?
আমি কিন্তু এসব গুজবে বিশ্বাস
করি না। দিব্যচক্ষে দেখতে পাচ্ছি, দিদি আবার বিপুল ভোটে জিতে নবান্নে ঢুকছেন। চারপাশ
আলো করে ছারপোকার মত গুনীজন।
Tutiar Kuthi under Nayarhat Panchayat in Dinhata Assembly segment in
Coochbehar has 85 per cent Muslim population, higher than the district average
of 25.5 per cent (Census, 2011). With 25 per cent illiteracy, this border
district in North Bengal is among the most backward in the State.
In the 2019 general election, BJP got 73 per cent votes at Nayarhat where
the party doesn’t even have many activists.
This was surely not an overwhelming trend. At Muslim-majority Chhoto
Goroljhora in the same Assembly segment, BJP got a total of 16 votes in two
polling stations. However, there is little doubt that support from a section,
helped BJP to win Cooch Behar Lok Sabha seat with 48 per cent votes.
This is not the first time Muslims voted for BJP. According to CSDS-Lokniti
post-poll survey, BJP got eight per cent of total Muslim votes in 2014. The
ratio was maintained in 2019 election which took the shape of a referendum on
Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
However, CSDS-Lokniti says, in West Bengal, where BJP’s share of Muslim
votes went up from two per cent to four per cent.
This is striking because, BJP barely had a presence in the State until
recently, and the ruling dispensation of Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress
has left no stone unturned to “appease” Muslim voters. Communal tension was
steadily rising in the State since 2011 when Banerjee came to power.
Banerjee strategy was partly successful. She got more Muslim votes than in
2014. But, her government became hugely unpopular due to the gross failure of
the law and order and all-pervading corruption. The partisan approach to a
section of the population added fuel to the fire.
Interesting trend
Apparently, therefore, a section of Muslims dumped the partisan politics
and joined the mainstream in voting against the misrule of the Banerjee-led
Trinamool government. With Left and Congress lacking strength, voters picked up
BJP as a viable alternative.
This central theme was aided by many local factors.
For example, the NRC (National Registrar of Citizens) debate had an impact
in Cooch Behar. And as in Assam (which has 34 per cent Muslim population
against 28 per cent in Bengal), the focal point of the debate shifted to
natives versus outsiders or migrants.
The Muslim-majority border districts of Malda (51 per cent) and Murshidabad
(66 per cent) always had a distinct voting pattern. In the past, they were
Congress bastions. In 2019 BJP won Malda North, narrowly lost Malda South and
finished second in Jangipur.
NRC was a non-issue here. Voters rejected Mamata’s brand of politics that
offers little space to the Opposition. Even Muslim appeasement became an issue
here. BJP candidate Mafuza Khatun at Jangipur (Murshidabad) was most vocal
about it. She got 24 per cent vote.
Birbhum (37 per cent Muslim) in South Bengal is one of the most
conflict-ridden districts of West Bengal. In 2015, a Muslim village changed its
allegiance from CPM to BJP to survive the onslaught on Trinamool. In 2018, the
opposition couldn’t field a single candidate in the rural body elections.
In 2019, BJP got 39 per cent votes against 45 per cent of Trinamool amidst
widespread complaints of booth capturing and rigging.
Joining mainstream
The Muslim vote-bank politics gained momentum in West Bengal since
mid-1980’s or early 1990s.If the
post-poll sequence of events is of any significance, the vote bank politics
will suffer more in the days to come.
Early this month, the Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee blatantly sought the
support of the Muslims to fight out BJP in the Assembly election from the
biggest Eid gathering in Kolkata. To her dismay, a popular cleric reminded the
gathering that it would be foolish to bank on any party. Muslims, he said,
should do better in educating their children.
For Banerjee, a bigger shock came on June 19, when a bunch of Muslim
intellectuals wrote a letter to the Chief Minister reminding her that the
government must not allow criminals “to get away scot-free because they
happened to be Muslims (as is a growing perception)”.
The reaction came in the wake of the recent attack on doctors in a city
medical college by a group of Muslims. The police were visibly slack in booking
the culprits. The State government didn’t condemn the incident and even blamed
doctors (and BJP) for observing strike until the situation snowballed into a
nationwide crisis.
West Bengal Chief Minister
Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress government are in serious trouble.
On Sunday evening the Union home
ministry issued a warning to the State government for failing to ensure law and
order. Though formally referred as an “advisory” by the Centre, under the
provisions of the Constitution; the tone and tenor of the note makes it
eligible to be considered as a ‘directive’.
The sharp warning came in the
wake of recent post-poll violence at Sandeshkhali in Trinamool-controlled
Basirhat constituency in North-24 Parganas district in the outskirts of
Kolkata. At least three persons -including two affiliated to BJP and one from
Trinamool – died in the clash that took place on June 8. According to BJP, at
least five of their supporters were killed in the violence.
Pix courtesy: The Quint
Post-poll violence is not new in
Bengal. Over the decades, it has become more of a norm. But the development on
Sunday indicates that the Narendra Modi government may not follow the beaten
track and, that left Banerjee fuming.
The indications are clear. The
Centre is keeping a close eye on West Bengal. They will keep following the
issue. And if the State fails to comply, despite repeated warnings; the Centre
has the right to take executive decision to impose President’s Rule in Bengal
for two months. Extending the President’s Rule, however, would require the
consent of both houses of the Parliament.
So, is the Centre looking at
replacing an elected government by force? May not be.
It is understood, the Narendra
Modi government actively considered the option in February this year - just
before the General election - when Mamata Banerjee took to the streets in
support of the controversial former top cop of Kolkata, Rajeev Kumar, who was
facing CBI (Central Bureau of Investigations) enquiry on the chit-fund scam.
While the State police also harassed CBI, Banerjee went on Dharna with Kumar by
her side.
There was no precedence of a
Chief Minister taking such a conflict course against the Centre for a Central
cadre police officer, in the history of Independent India. The Centre read it
as an attempt to challenge the Constitutional powers of the Indian government
by a provincial government – which again, is unprecedented.
Sources say Modi1.0 weighed the
options of President’s Rule in February but gave it up as they were not sure
about the political impact ahead of the General election. They were concerned
that such an action - even if legitimate – might trigger sympathy wave for
Mamata. In short, the Modi government was afraid of the popularity of Mamata
Banerjee.
That fear factor is now gone.
The General election proved beyond doubt that Modi’s popularity increased
nationwide and Mamata lost ground in Bengal. Her party now has practically no
control in entire Northern and Western parts of the State. And, her
organization is wiping out across the State, as ground level workers are joining
BJP en masse.
In fact, a repeat election may
now find, her party struggling to retain half of the seats, they won only three
weeks ago on May 23. From a popular Chief Minister, Mamata Banerjee is now in a
race for the most unpopular slot in the history of West Bengal.
This is not the only factor
emboldens the BJP government at the Centre. It is widely anticipated that
Trinamool Congress is now awaiting large scale defection of MLAs and MPs. Will
they go to BJP? May or may not be. They may rival Banerjee’s supremacy in the
party, or whatever is left.
Theoretically, Mamata could stop
the downslide by changing her politics. But she didn’t. She continued her trade
against the Centre and is trying to remain politically relevant depending on
minority votes, which control little less than 100 constituencies in Bengal,
more than ever. She openly sought the support of Muslims at the largest Eid
gathering this year.
She might get the support of
some in the community. But, it is unlikely that the entire community will
follow her blindly. A senior cleric warned Muslims to fall in the trap of
partisan politics, in the presence of Mamata and advised the community to focus
on mainstreaming.
In the final analysis, Mamata
may now have definite control in 50-60 minority-heavy assembly constituencies -
like Sandeshkhali, which is now in news - out of 294.
And, the BJP is not in a hurry
to overthrow her government. Ideally, the Centre cannot extend President’s rule
beyond two months as BJP doesn’t have the majority in the Upper house of the
Parliament. The directive issued on Sunday may be one step towards weakening
her.
It found Mamata in a serious
problem. She was in the mood to postpone the election in many rural and urban
bodies, citing post-poll violence, so as to avoid losing further ground to BJP.
But now she will not have much choice. And as BJP will gain more strength,
Trinamool will be further weakened from inside.
Who knows West Bengal may be
heading for an early, free and fair election, under the President’s rule. Ideally,
that's the best option for BJP to come to power in West Bengal.
BJP created history in 2019
General Election by winning 18 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal, which has been
delinked from the national politics since 1977 when Left Front came to power
replacing Congress.
If the trend continues, BJP will
create an even bigger history in the next two years.
Officially the next election is
due in 2021. But, the sustained erosion of popularity of Chief Minister Mamata
Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress, may open a plethora of opportunities of
political manoeuvring by BJP.
There is the scope of debate if
BJP can get an absolute majority in the State. But, anyone with his/her nose on
the ground, will agree that at this juncture, Trinamool is in no position to
reach anywhere near the winning margin.
In fact, a re-poll might see
Trinamool losing half of the Lok Sabha seats it had own on May 23 verdict.
From auto-rickshaw drivers to
government employees – the government is facing a million mutinies.Officers are lying low. Police are careful.
Barring some pockets, party workers are in a hurry to leave the sinking ship.
And, when the workers leave, leaders cannot be far behind.
With some exceptions, the scene
is the same across the State. Many rural bodies already went to BJP. Many
others are with Trinamool, but merely on paper. They are eagerly awaiting a
call from the BJP and, till that comes they have started working for the BJP.
There is not a single Trinamool
flag for miles in parts of the State. BJP doesn’t have the ground force to
enforce it. They were removed voluntarily to be with the wind.
There was no precedence of such
a dramatic loss of popularity of any government in West Bengal. CPM retained
its composure even after the drubbing in 2009 General Election.
Mamata has no clue how to stop
this slide. Even kids are bullying her by chanting ‘Jai Shri Ram’. As a
desperate attempt, she is now trying to fuel Bengali, non-Bengali divide or
expressing her “commitments” to the minorities (read Muslims), more than ever.
Trinamool is not merely melting.
They are evaporating, without any resistance; as is amply proved in a
relatively low incidence of post-poll violence so far this year.
For a state where hundreds die
in post-poll violence and ‘political violence’ became part of the popular
lingo, for nearly half a century; this is abnormal.
Will it be the new normal? Can
BJP free Bengalis from the grip of a pathetically regressive political culture
that converted this strip of land, with an unparallel contribution in nation
building, into an antithesis of growth and development?
We have to wait for the answer.
They didn’t do justice to their
landslide win in Tripura, where inept party management is failing to keep the
house in order. Taking turncoats from Congress, as an easy recipe to win the
election, added to the woes.
BJP was about to make a similar
mistake in Bengal last week, when they roped in controversial Forward Block
turned Trinamool MLA, Manirul Islam. BJP thought the inclusion of Islam will
bring them Muslim votes.
But the widespread criticism, including from Muslims, forced BJP to dump Islam
within six days of his inclusion. Last heard, the party decided to avoid such
cheap tactics, in the future.
BJP may have a limited interest
to acquire power. But they should do well to remember that the people of Bengal
are seeking freedom from prolonged misrule. They have turned their face from
Mamata. BJP has to win their confidence.
The weak financial status of
electricity distribution companies (DISCOM) proves to be a major embarrassment
for the Narendra Modi government of BJP.
The embarrassment is not
limited to the miserable failure of UDAY (Ujwal Discom Assurance Yojana) to
bring any lasting change in the operational performance of DISCOMs, who had
misused another – the third or fourth since 2003 - debt-restructuring
opportunity.
What is more worrying is, much
of the good work done at the fag end of the UPA-II to prevent bankrolling of
the revenue gap of DISCOMs – following recommendations of the as Shunglu panel in December 2011 – stands
undone.
According to a recent report
submitted by a committee - which was formed by the ministry of power and, was
headed by the chairperson of the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) - banks
are once again financing unbankable DISCOMs to ensure electricity supply.
The “Draft report of the
committee on delayed payments by DISCOMs to Gencos/IPPs”, submitted in May 2019, pointed out that cash-starved DISCOMs are managing the
situation by arm-twisting Gencos and bankrolling their finance gap.
The report indicated that most
of the DISCOMs are not eligible for fresh finances if banks follow the
criterion for maximum permissible limit. However, they keep enjoying the
benefit, simply due to the ruling political support and without any sort of
guarantee from the States which was objected by Shunglu panel.
“Most of the DISCOMs would not
be eligible for any bank finance if Banks follow this criterion strictly.
However, in view of the fact that most of the Discoms are government owned and
have a long-term relationship with the banks, the latter extend limited funds
to the Discoms” the report said.
The committee identified that
as on March 31, the total outstanding dues of generating companies was Rs
40,909 crore, up by nearly 70 per cent in a year. This is excluding another Rs
15,000 crore outstanding of the RE sector.
Of the Gencos, IPPs
(Independent power producers) are the worst affected with Rs 15835 crore
outstanding. Karnataka (Rs 5158 crore), Uttar Pradesh (Rs 4934 crore),
Telangana (Rs 4801 crore), Andhra Pradesh (Rs 4539 crore), Tamil Nadu (Rs 4381
crore) and Maharashtra (Rs 3153 crore), together contributing about 66 per cent
of the outstanding dues. Not to mention that UP and Maharashtra are BJP ruled.
Andhra Pradesh was ruled by NDA partner for two out of three years of the
launch of UDAY.
Surprisingly excepting for two
months, the DISCOMs never made full payment against the monthly power purchase,
over the last fiscal (2018-19). Excepting Gujarat, Rajasthan and Haryana
(partly), the DISCOMs of all major States are earning less than the cost of
power. This is irrespective of the fact that the cost of power ruling low due
to over-supply situation.
A major failure
Energy occupied much of the
time of Modi1.0. The government did an excellent job in scrapping theRangarajan formula for natural gas pricing, that would have offered windfall gains to domestic
producers, and replacing it by a more realistic methodology.
Deregulation of petrol, diesel prices was a huge favour to the economy. As was amply proved during the recent
spike in crude prices; India adjusted well to market-driven pricing of
fuel. The era of subsidies and ‘oil bonds’ are over. Thrust to the
national gas grid and city gas distribution were the right steps.
But, problems in coal and power
are hardly over. The domestic coal production surely increased at a greater
speed than in the past. But dependence on Coal India increased manifold, as the
captive coal mining sector literally collapsed. The coal block auction failed
to live up to the expectation. Private Commercial mining is yet to take
off.
The situation is worse in the
electricity sector. Some of them like stressed coal-based power generation
assets, are legacy issues and, stems from the over-supply situation. The
generation scene got more complex due to the fast increase in RE (renewable
energy) capacity, particularly solar capacity, which now reached a significant
30GW or 8.5 per cent of the total (350GW). It would be wrong to blame the
government for fast forwarding the National Solar Mission targets. The move was
required to keep pace with the global power technology changes and the rising
concern over climate change.
But where the government failed
miserably is ensuring good health of DISCOMs for the sustainability of its
power-for-all agenda. As is now amply proved the hype created about UDAY,
launched with fanfare in November 2015, was thoroughly misplaced. The
weaknesses became apparent when Jharkhand – the first State to sign up for UDAY
– piled up a huge outstanding to the genco, Damodar
Valley Corporation, within a year. But the government ignored the alarm
bell.
Finding a shortcut?
It is common knowledge that the
lasting solution to the problem lies in broad spectrum reforms. With Modi2.0
coming to power with a greater majority, there is a definite opportunity for
such reforms too.
However, if the recommendations
of the draft report are of any significance; the ministry appointed committee
(appointed in Februray 2019, before the General election) may be looking at
penalizing the fuel supplier, Coal India Ltd (CIL), for the failures of the DISCOMS
and State level tariff regulators.
The committee wants, CIL to
payment forms for coal purchases through e-auction more flexible.
According to the committee, CIL now takes a minimum of four months to supply
the fuel purchased from e-auction. It also urged DISCOMS to pay 25 per cent of
the anticipated power bill in advance to Gencos.
Will this solve the problem?
Unlikely. Discoms will pay 25 per cent and delay the rest. Only CIL, being a
State-owned company, will comply, if asked to.
For a student of Indian
politics, the Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech before the newly elected
353 MPs of the BJP-led NDA (National Democratic Alliance), at the Central Hall
of the Parliament, on May 25; should be of archival value.
Because it gives a complete
outline of why the government was returned to power with a historic, the
responsibilities ahead, and why it is of utmost importance for this government
to succeed, so as to restore the faith of voters on the political class.
“Until now elections were kind
of a contract system where voters used to pick up someone to run the country
and replaced him at the slightest pretext. This has been replaced by a
relationship of trust,” the Prime Minister said.
He is indeed correct.
Having crossed 72 years, India’s
electoral democracy is now matured. From the post-Independence euphoria, the
tumults 1960’s and 1970’s, marked by a series of wars and abject poverty; to
the days of coalition politics and weak governments at the Centre and the return
of a strong Central government in 2014; Indian voters have tasted it all.
During this long journey, they
saw the political narrative changing time and again. The fall of Indira Gandhi
in 1977, in the hands of Janata Party – an amalgam of anti-Emergency forces –
shifted the power balance from the Centre to the States, giving rise to
regional forces.
Rajiv Gandhi misused the huge
mandate in stoking the religious fire. In 1985, he amended the law to reverse a
Supreme Court order for payment of alimony to the repudiated wife, overruling
Muslim personal law. Later, he opened the locks of the Ram Janambhoomi-Babri
Masjid bringing religious divide out in the open.
The short-lived V P Singh
government divided Hindu votes along the caste lines. This, coupled with the
rising aspirations of the post-Liberalisation (1991) period, triggered an era
of coalition politics at the Centre, which was broken in 2014 with the arrival
of Narendra Modi.
Looking back there were broadly
two factors behind Modi’s rise.
First: the unrelenting criticism
of Modi for the post-Godhra (where 59 Hindu pilgrims were burnt alive in a
train) riot, in Gujarat, despite being cleared of all charges by the courts.
The political attack on him became sharper, as Modi proved to be one of the
finest Chief Ministers of his time. A section of Hindus felt he was persecuted.
Second:Modi used the focused attention of the
Congress-led coalition and other Left-socialist forces to hog the limelight and
project himself as a strong, incorruptible leader who could steer the nation to
growth in the face of any adversity
He changed the political
narrative of the country in 2014 riding on these factors. For the first time
since 1989, the caste barriers were broken. Not only Hindus, but even a small
section of Muslims voted him to power in the hope of a corruption-free strong
government.
Did Modi live up to his
promises?
The proof lies in the pudding.
Barring some exceptions, he had been BJP’s vote machine over the last five
years and in 2019 election, which took the shape of a referendum on Modi; he
improved his tally. All caste and religious equations of a fell flat as BJP
increased both vote and seat share against a near-unified Opposition.
What is the reason behind the
stupendous success? Why did Indian media fail to gauge the public mood? Is it
due to the religious divide, as the Left-liberal elites allege? The answer lies
in the changed narrative.
Don’t forget that if religious
divide held the key to success in India; then BJP should have come to power in
1989 and 1991, 1996 etc. The Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led a minority government to
power in 1998.
Don’t forget either that despite
having majority, Modi left it on court to decide on controversial issues
ranging from Ram Mandir to Article 370; and focused his attention on offering
cooking gas, electricity to the poor; pushing development agenda, building
roads, taking decisions like tax reforms or arms purchase which were pending
for decades.
The most important thing that
Modi did was instilling a sense of pride among Indians. Elites may not like it,
but his call to give it back to the terrorists was well received by the common
Indians who were tired of living in constant fear of terror for the last 40
years.
India is a vast country with
varied expectations. Modi touched them all. Some were benefitted bu direct
benefit transfer or financial inclusion or cheap healthcare programme. Some
more were drawn into the start-up rush.
Some rich industrialists are
negatively affected as Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code allowed Banks to
forcefully recover their dues.
The relationship was not based
on the government dole. Many forget that here came a leader at whose call, 1.25
crore prosperous Indians gave up their cooking gas subsidy.
The air strike on terrorist hideouts
in Pakistan may be an icing on the cake, but that’s not all and sundry about
Modi’s popularity. He is successful in gaining the trust of people. And the
Opposition made the mistake of suspecting that in the 2019 election. Voters
made an extra effort to see Modi winning.
Normally negative voting leads
to high polling percentage. But this year rush to elect Modi saw polling
percentages reaching an all-time high.
Modi now has to live up to the
expectation he himself created. And, rest assured it wouldn’t be an easy task.
In the first term, people pardoned him for failures, if any.
In the second term he will have
less excuses. People will expect take
the country to an unprecedented height, which will be a challenge in the
current global atmosphere. Modi is fully aware of it and he outlined the task
ahead in his very first speech.
EVM or electronic voting machine
is not new in India. It replaced ballot paper and everyone was happy or content
about it till a few years ago, when Narendra Modi started winning election
after election excepting a few blips or slips, as in Bihar in 2015.
I know some people will
immediately point at Karnataka, MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan but, that would
be foolish.
If we look closely, BJP actually
did way better than expected in both Karnataka and Rajasthan. They had a poor
chief ministerial choice in Karnataka when compared to young and energetic Chief Minister Siddharamaiah of Congress. There was no major anti-incumbency against the Siddharamaiah government either. Yet BJP emerged as the single largest party and
Congress had to form a government through the backdoor.
Similarly, Rajasthan has a
tradition of changing the government in five years and Vijay Raje Scindia
became unpopular. A washout was the most expected outcome of the election but
it didn’t happen so. Congress scraped through.
In MP and Chhattisgarh, BJP was in power for
too long. In terms of vote share, BJP is still the largest in MP. The concern
if any was the erosion of support base among the tribals in Chhattisgarh.
What is surprising is that the EVM controversy
peaked during these assembly elections. The opposition started demanding return
of paper ballots, which were ideal for rigging. But the claim evaporated after
the Opposition formed governments in Chhattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan.
The controversy made
a come-back over the last few days, after the exit poll
estimates were out on May 19, with the opposition alleging mass hacking of EVMs. Video clips started circulating. A not-so-reputable
foreign news source (they are the innovators of “chequebook journalism”,
“embedded journalism”, as you know) put up a report. And, enlightened individuals best
described by the phrase “Luiten’s” started tweeting such clips.
But why?
An absurd allegation
I spoke to senior politicians in
the Opposition and very senior bureaucrats in at least two non-BJP states.
There appears to be little doubt about the absurdity of the claim. And for
reason.
As we all know EVM is a
standalone device that is not connected to the web. The machines with 14 voting
slots each, are procured from State-owned companies and kept in the custody of the State
authorities in the run-up of the election.
The names of the candidate are
inserted only after the completion of the nomination process. It means attempts
to tamper the machine before that is of no use. If that’s not enough, any mass tampering is impossible for the simple fact that the names of the
candidates appear in alphabetical order and that varies from constituency to
constituency.
After the candidate names are
put into the slot, the EVM is physically sealed by both EC and the candidates.
The seal is broken only at the booth, after due checking by the political
parties, and mock polling takes place at the booth to ensure that the EVM is perfectly
working and votes are going to the desired destination.
After the polling is over, the
EVMs are sealed again (in each step candidates use their own seal along with
the seal of the election officials) and in the presence of nominated
representatives the respective parties. From here till the journey to the
strong-room, the EVM remains under the constant watch of parties in the fray.
The Strong-room not only remains under lock and key. But even the keyhole of the lock is sealed by all. While
the strong-room is guarded by central forces, each candidate is entitled to
nominate one person to guard the strong-room till the day of the counting, when
again the seal is broken in the presence and consensus of all parties involved.
The procedure is so set, that
election officials have no discretionary power and the politics become a party
to the safety of the EVM. No election official can enter the strong-room
without the knowledge of the parties, leave alone taking them away and
replacing them, as is suggested by Some Opposition parties and actively
propagated by a section of media.
What I am saying is no
classified information. Ask your friendly bureaucrat, who conducted an
election, or any sensible political leader, in private, and he will tell you
charges leveled are absurd. The reserve EVMs (which are kept in stock for
possible use during an emergency) are transferred in open trucks etc, not the
ones holding the clue to the next government. That’s exactly why there was
never any controversy about EVMs.
So why are they making noise now?
Some say Modi made EC a puppet. Assuming he did, we need proof. In BJP ruled
Tripura (two seats) EC postponed the election in one constituency, and ordered
re-poll in nearly 15% booths in the other – in the face of allegations of
rigging by the BJP. It was big news, but barely covered in the national media.
However, there were reports of seizure of cash from BJP workers. If EC was lax
on BJP, how did you get those reports?
At the same time, there is ample
proof of Opposition-ruled States, like West Bengal, not only trying to browbeat
EC but leaving no stone unturned to prevent the set democratic norms. There are
dozens of examples of district administrations of West Bengal denying
permission to the Prime Minister and his senior colleagues from BJP to hold rallies
or land helicopter. Was it a democratic approach? Why the now-removed home
secretary of West Bengal wanted to stop the use of central forces in the
election?
Allegations against EC’s
integrity and independence are not new. In 2006, when EC ordered a six-phase
Assembly election in West Bengal, the then Left Front government saw a
conspiracy. In the end, Left won that election by a historic margin.
Ploy to invite global pressure?
But why the Opposition led by
Congress is making such absurd allegations? Is it a simple case of finding a
scapegoat for their anticipated failure? I see a bigger plot behind.
It is well known that this
election is a make or break for either side. The rise of Modi is a unique in
Indian political history. What the entire Opposition did to Indira Gandhi in
1977; Modi did it alone. He was never a preferred choice of BJP as the prime
ministerial candidate. He made himself indispensable to BJP. And, having taken
the country by storm, he challenged the prevailing political narrative. This was
as good as questioning the viability of the existing political class.
Naturally, Modi is a common enemy of many.
And, as they didn’t leave any
stone unturned to challenge Modi’s supremacy; Modi too picked-up his targets.
It’s a ruthless power game and, this election will decide who is going to face
the music. Those standing on a weak wicket might, therefore, be looking forward
to involving a third party – global pressure on Modi at the pretext of what
they call “rigged election”.
Who is going to have the last
laugh, will be clear in the next 48 hours. But, the only casualty in this war
is national pride.
Over the last 25 years; we really created a fine institution
in the Election Commission, despite sufficient efforts to curb its power. Do
you remember which government converted EC into a three-member panel, so as to curb
the powers of the maverick Chief Election Commissioner T N Seshan?
Lok Sabha Elections 2019, may
probably have the most interesting outcome in West Bengal.
For a State which is known for
giving too long a rope to the ruling party; 2019 should be different. And, that
would be a major shocker not only for the ruling Trinamool but also for a large
section of mainstream media, which kept a blind eye to the changing public
mood.
To my understanding, the 2019
election may be a near re-run of the 2009 Lok Sabha Election, when the TMC-led
Opposition got 26 seats compared to 15 of the ruling CPI(M)-led Left Front.
Left got 35 seats in the previous (2004) election. Trinamool got 34 in 2014.
In 2009, Opposition parties
entered seat-share arrangement to ensure a bipolar contest. In 2019, the
parties are divided, but their supporters appear to be united against TMC and
resorting to strategic voting. BJP is getting votes as a strategic alternative.
Add to this, the general
consolidation of Hindu votes to BJP; definite preference of young voters to
Modi over Mamata; split of 28 per cent Muslim votes (which Trinamool considered
its preserve) to various stakeholders including BJP (particularly in Birbhum
and Coochbehar) on local or national considerations and; stern management by
the Election Commission – this election may throw many surprises.
As per my estimates, which is
drawn on inputs received from multiple sources, including on-ground assessment;
of the 18 seats polled till phase-IV (May 29); 8 to 11 seats might have gone to
BJP. Congress may have bagged 3 to 4; and Trinamool Congress, which came to
power in 2011, is having anything between 4 to 6.
Trinamool may have suffered a
near wash-out in first three phases of polling when North Bengal went to polls
and is making amends in South Bengal, where it surely has a stronger support base
and better poll machinery.
As for methodology, I have been
armed with constituency-wise pre-election and post-election analytics which
takes care of the trends, momentum, last minute electoral engineering by
parties and last but not the least the public mood, which I believe is getting
stronger against Trinamool.
West Bengal has 42 seats. So, a
lot of polling is yet to be held. Trinamool will do better in South Bengal.
They may also emerge as the single largest party in terms of seat-share, in a
four-corner poll. But, the trend is probably set.
If we remember the past trends,
dramatic rise of the Opposition in Parliamentary election generally set the
course for change in State government in the following Assembly election; and
whosoever was out of power, rarely came back.
The only exception to this rule
was in 1989 when Congress failed to farther the major lead it got in 1984.
However, the 1984 election was an exception too.
Meanwhile, for the first time,
Chief Minister Mamata Bannerjee’s rallies are failing to attract too many
people. On the contrary, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is proving a
crowd-puller.
On April 29, Modi held two
meetings in the same district. Each rally was attended by 1-1.5 lakh people.
For many reasons than one, there was little prospect of mobilizing this large
crowd from far away destinations.
The symptoms are clear:
Trinamool Congress is facing an anti-incumbency wave and is losing its iron
grip on voters. There were very few one-sided acts of violence by the ruling party in the last four
phases of the poll. Each such action was retaliated by Opposition supporters
with equal measure.
Party insiders admit this. After
the fourth phase, a top poll-manager of Trinamool predicted, in close quarters,
that BJP might get 15 seats. Till last week, he was not ready to give BJP more
than 10 seats.
It is surprising how mainstream
media missed this trend, while digital and social media is full of loud hints.
